456
FXUS64 KLUB 202326
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH A RELATIVELY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
- WINDY AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE MID-NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO
AS OF 11 AM. WINDS BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT ARE
PROGRESSING AS PLANNED WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO AROUND 15-20 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING WESTWARD AND INCREASING TO 25-35 MPH ON THE CAPROCK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WITH IT LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
WILL DROP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ON THE
CAPROCK LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS SUCH A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE CAPROCK. THE ROLLING PLAINS
WILL BE MOSTLY SPARED FROM TODAY'S WINDS AND FIRE DANGER AS THE
FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THAT FAR EASTWARD UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. BY THIS
TIME MIXING WILL BE AT A MINIMUM WITH WIND SPEEDS ONLY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10-15 MPH.
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND BE THROUGH THE FA
WELL BEFORE NOON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUGHT OF BREEZY WINDS,
THIS TIME AREA WIDE, AND WILL FURTHER COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY STAYING IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 MPH BY
SUNSET. DESPITE BREEZY WINDS EARLIER IN THE DAY, THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES HELPING KEEP
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 15 PERCENT WITH ONLY BRIEFLY
ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
WE WILL HAVE A COOLER AND QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST
BEFORE THE RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
BY MID-WEEK. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN CONUS
SUNDAY SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT FROM MOSTLY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHT HEIGHT INCREASES FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE JUMPING INTO THE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. THE UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN MID-WEEK AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATES ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO
END THE WEEK AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL "COOL", THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SADLY, THERE IS
NO PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND A FRONT ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY MID
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AS
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO AS LOW AS 13 PERCENT. OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW SATURDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTH AROUND 15-20 MPH FROM SUNRISE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 10 MPH BY SUNSET SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WILL HELP TO KEEP MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT OR HIGHER. FUELS REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY WITH ERCS AVERAGING IN THE 60-70TH PERCENTILE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021-022-027-028-
033>035-039>041.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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