907
FXUS64 KLUB 221100
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
500 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- COOLER THROUGH MONDAY.
- WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MID-NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND
AN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE
COLDEST MORNING LOWS IN SOME TIME, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-TO-MID 20S
AND POSSIBLE TEENS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE. WITH THE
ABSENCE OF ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES, THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THUS WINDS WILL
FINALLY BE LIGHT FOR A CHANGE, ONLY PEAKING OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR 10
MPH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF I-27, WITH EVEN LIGHTER SE
WINDS OFF THE CAPROCK. WITH THE WEAKER WARM ADVECTION, HIGHS WILL
ONLY MINIMALLY RECOVER TO AROUND 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 20S BRINGING A COOL START
TO THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH FOR MOST
AREAS. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING A SUBSEQUENT SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 10 MPH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, MODERATING TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S. FURTHER
EMBEDDED AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE NEAR 1000 MB WILL BE
CENTERED EAST OF AMARILLO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LIKEWISE INCREASE AS A
RESULT AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MANY
AREAS, PARTICULARLY OFF THE CAPROCK. COMBINED WITH HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
APPEARING MORE LIKELY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY. WHILE ITS EXACT TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN IT MOVING GENERALLY OVER
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. AS SUCH, WINDS WOULD BE LIGHTER THERE AND
STRONGER TOWARDS THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE THEREFORE GREATEST FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WOULD OCCUR. AFTER A COLD FRONT SWITCHING WINDS
BACK TO NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY, WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09
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