853
FXUS64 KLUB 221817
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- COOLER THROUGH MONDAY.
- WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID-NEXT WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND PLEASANT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE 50S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FA AND A
SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL DROP TO
INTO THE 20S TONIGHT, THEY WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING THANKS TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND WILL HELP HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 60S BY THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE BREEZY WINDS, THE STILL COOL TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY BY KEEPING MINIMUM HUMIDITY ABOVE 15
PERCENT. STILL, SOME BRIEFLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ALONG THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST AND 20 FOOT WINDS THE HIGHEST. FUEL DRYNESS
IS AROUND AVERAGE WITH ERCS IN THE 50-60TH PERCENTILE AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STARTING TUESDAY WILL HELP BEGIN
FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS.
TUESDAY'S SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
LOW IS PROGGED TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND OUT
OF THE WEST MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE WESTERLY WIND WILL DROP MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FA AND
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BRINGING BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE FA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE SECOND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THAN TUESDAY'S SHORTWAVE, MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING IN BREEZY
NORTH WINDS. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS BEGINS TO MOVE THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD PLACING IT
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEST OF THE FA WITH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DOMINATED BY UPPER
TROUGHING AND A MID-WEEKEND COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH 17Z. AFT 17Z WINDS WILL BECOME STEADILY SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 5-10KTS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...28
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