157
FXUS64 KLUB 230440
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1040 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
- OUTSIDE OF RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, A WARM AND
DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED FIRE CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10 MPH WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF CHILLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH WIDESPREAD 20S ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEENS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE. WEAK UPPER
WAVES OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE THAN
SUNDAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THEREFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW
60S. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MODERATING
MORNINGS LOWS IN THE 30S. STRONGER UPPER WAVES WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MUCH LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE BELOW 1000 MB OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WSW AND FURTHER INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH. HIGHS WILL INCREASE AROUND 20 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY GENERALLY INTO THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AS SUCH, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ELONGATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
THAN TUESDAY AND ANY GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED NEAR THE TX/NM
BORDER. WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF THE MORE DUE WESTERLIES. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO NEAR 70 IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES
TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE 80S IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WINDS MAY SHIFT SE SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, HOWEVER EXACT TIMING
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. MODEST SOUTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY MORNING AND BECOME BREEZY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>024-027>031-033>037-039>041.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30
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