397
FXUS64 KLUB 231725
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY.
- WARM DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY THANKS TO A WEAK FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
AFTER A COOLER START TO THE WORK WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP
OVER THE CONUS WITH A PAIR OF LOWS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PACNW AND
NECONUS. AS FOR TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTHERLY AND THICKNESS AND
HEIGHT VALUES RISE SUBTLY WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE EVENING, AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE
REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
BREEZY TOWARDS THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH, WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THESE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT MAX
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER FROM WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT, IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE FLATTENED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY AS A PERTURBATION TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS THIS HAPPENS, A SURFACE LOW OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL-HIGH PLAINS WILL DEEPEN, DRIVING THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION FARTHER SOUTH WHERE IT DEVELOPS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCES PLACES THIS SURFACE LOW
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, WITH THE CORE
OF THE H8 JET MAX AND H7 JET MAX'S CENTERED OVER THE CAPROCK
REGIONS. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE LEE SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRONGER SURFACE LOW TO
OUR NORTH AND WHERE IT ENDS UP SETTING UP. GIVEN THIS, COMBINED WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A WELL MIXED PBL THROUGH PEAK HEATING
SUGGESTS A BREEZY DAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH, GUSTING UP TO
35 MPH. SIMILAR TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BACK ABOVE NORMAL, THANKS TO THE CONTINUE
UPTICK IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, CLEAR SKIES, AND THE WARM WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. IN FACT, CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NEAR RECORD BREAKING TERRITORY, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
20C TO 22C SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 80S. CURRENT RECORDS DATE BACK TO
1918 AT KLBB WITH A RECORD HIGH OF 89 DEGREES AND 2002 FOR KCDS WITH
A RECORD HIGH OF 86 DEGREES. CURRENT HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AT KLBB AND
KCDS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES FROM THESE RECORD, WHICH LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN RECORDS BEING BROKEN. NONETHELESS, A WARM DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE CAPROCK REGIONS!
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW ON FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
MAIN MESSAGE OF THE EXTENDED PACKAGE WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW LAST WEEK, A WAVE TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS GLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS, WORKING TO FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. IN RESPONSE, WE WILL SEE THE CONTINUATION OF A LEE-SIDE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AND FAST MOVING
COMPARED TO THE LEE SIDE LOW WE EXPECT ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE, WE
EXPECT NOT AS STRONG WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH, WITH HIGHER SPEEDS FIXATED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN. COOLER CONDITIONS
RETURN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, SWINGING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
REMAINING BREEZY, WILL HELP KEEP THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS COOLING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. UNFORTUNATELY IF YOU LIKE
THE COOLER WEATHER, THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ENSEMBLES HINTING
AT THE WEEKEND THEME BEING WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER
BAJA MEXICO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT BREEZY SSW AROUND 10KTS-15KTS
TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO AREAS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK TUESDAY AS NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH RETURNS
ALONG WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING, AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH.
WHILE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 TO
25 MPH. THE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
UPTICK IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL HELP INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES BACK
IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOWER TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT FUELS REMAIN DRY,
WITH ERCS AROUND THE 70TH TO 89TH PERCENTILE, RFTIS WILL RANGE FROM
4 TO 7. HIGHER RFTI VALUES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, WHERE STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
DUE TO THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS FROM 11 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 7 PM
TUESDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>031-033>037-039>041.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page