383
FXUS64 KLUB 021837
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- WARM AND DRY TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY OFF THE
CAPROCK. SOME STORMS ON THURSDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY ERODING WITH WINDS ALREADY
VEERING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FA DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FA
WIDE BY SUNSET, RESPONDING TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW
WILL BREAK FRONT HE LEE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA/CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT
IN TOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND COLORADO. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES. THE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CAPROCK. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER. WHILE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WARRANT MORE OF A
RANGELAND FIRE STATEMENT THAN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, FUEL LOADING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
AND RECENT WILDFIRES HAVE STARTED AND SPREAD WITH RELATIVE EASE WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH FUELS IN MIND, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR BAILEY, PARMER, AND CASTRO COUNTIES FROM NOON TO 7 PM TUESDAY. A
RFD WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE COUNTIES ON THE CAPROCK.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT PASSES AS A RESULT OF FRONTAL FORCING, BUT THESE SHOULD
CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION AND UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MIDWEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING AND TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. A DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY THURSDAY AND BEGIN PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAPROCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING BY THE EVENING. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AND WARRANTS WATCHING IN THE
COMING DAYS. THE DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA AGAIN
FRIDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FA BEFORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY BEHIND THE DRYLINE FRIDAY AS WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 MPH. BEYOND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH SPLITTING THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND SEND
THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD TOWARD BAJA, POSSIBLY SETTING UP FOR
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE PATTERN HOLDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KLBB, WITH MVFR CIGS
LINGERING AT KPVW AND KCDS THROUGH 21Z. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR WILL
OCCUR THEREAFTER, WITH VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF SOME LOW CIGS/VSBYS RETURNING
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAS BEEN WITHHELD
FROM THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OTHERWISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM TUESDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CAPROCK WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 10 TO 20
PERCENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021-022-027.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...09
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