186
FXUS64 KLUB 022336
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- WARM AND DRY TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MAINLY OFF THE
CAPROCK. SOME STORMS ON THURSDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY ERODING WITH WINDS ALREADY
VEERING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FA DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FA
WIDE BY SUNSET, RESPONDING TO A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW
WILL BREAK FRONT HE LEE TROUGH LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA/CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT
IN TOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND COLORADO. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN ZONES. THE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND BETWEEN 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CAPROCK. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER. WHILE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WARRANT MORE OF A
RANGELAND FIRE STATEMENT THAN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, FUEL LOADING REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
AND RECENT WILDFIRES HAVE STARTED AND SPREAD WITH RELATIVE EASE WITH
LIGHT WINDS. WITH FUELS IN MIND, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR BAILEY, PARMER, AND CASTRO COUNTIES FROM NOON TO 7 PM TUESDAY. A
RFD WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE COUNTIES ON THE CAPROCK.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT PASSES AS A RESULT OF FRONTAL FORCING, BUT THESE SHOULD
CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION AND UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MIDWEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING AND TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. A DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY THURSDAY AND BEGIN PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CAPROCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING BY THE EVENING. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AND WARRANTS WATCHING IN THE
COMING DAYS. THE DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA AGAIN
FRIDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FA BEFORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY BEHIND THE DRYLINE FRIDAY AS WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 MPH. BEYOND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH SPLITTING THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND SEND
THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD TOWARD BAJA, POSSIBLY SETTING UP FOR
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE PATTERN HOLDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
PRESENT FORECAST CALLS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE SOME DATA WHICH MIGHT SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR IFR VIZ/CEILINGS AFTER ABOUT 3AM. GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS AND UPSTREAM AIRMASS MOISTURE, AM HESITANT TO
ADVERTISE THIS IN THE TAF PROPER GIVEN THE MODEL'S KNOWN TENDENCY
TO OVER-DO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL, IT REMAINS A
POTENTIAL HAZARD IN THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD AND WOULD RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM TUESDAY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS TO AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CAPROCK WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 10 TO 20
PERCENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021-022-027.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...26
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