477
FXUS64 KLUB 030514
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1114 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- WARM AND DRY TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE
CAPROCK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT KEEPING TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE DAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TX/NM
BORDER. BREEZY SW WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WILL RESULT ACROSS
THE AREA AND AGAIN LEAD TO WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 80S. FORCING PARAMETERS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FAR SE
PANHANDLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED THROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. SYNOPTIC
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE INDICATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA, WHEREAS CAMS KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TO
THE EAST. NONETHELESS, POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED AS ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE FORCING, PWATS WILL REACH AROUND 1", AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. GREATEST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD OCCUR IN THE EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 10-15% GENERALLY ON THE CAPROCK
AND COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BREEZY WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DEPART OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND SURFACE WINDS SWITCH NORTH BEHIND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DESCENDS THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY AND A DEEPER ~994 MB RESULTANT SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS. SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOTICABLE
DRYLINE WILL HELP LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXACTLY WHERE THEY DEVELOP REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, BUT AT THIS POINT IT WOULD GENERALLY BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND EAST OF I-27. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE-DAY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS, BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT AND BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW BEFORE
TAKING AN UNUSUAL SE TRACK AND STALLING OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND. ONCE IT BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY
IFR CEILINGS WITHIN AN HOUR OF SO OF SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY TO NEAR 15 MPH.
COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AND HUMIDITIES FALLING
TO 10-15%, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK, WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING NORTHERLY
WINDS DURING THE DAY, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26
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