642
FXUS64 KLUB 031815
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OFF THE
CAPROCK.
- POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE DRYLINE THURSDAY WITH SEVERE STORMS.
- FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
TEMPERATURES AT NOON WERE WARMING NICELY THROUGH THE 70S AND 80S ON
LIGHT SW WINDS. BOTH LBB AND CDS SHOULD GET CLOSE TO THEIR MUTUAL
RECORD HIGH OF 88 DEGREES LATER TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHOVES
SOUTH THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A DRYLINE
ORGANIZING ALONG A MORTON-PLAINVIEW-GROOM LINE, WITH THE COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT IS ON
TRACK TO ENTER OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES BY 5-6 PM AND SLOWLY CLEAR
OUR SOUTHERN ROW DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS. WITH THE DRYLINE
HANGING OUT NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK DURING THIS FROPA AND THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER JET'S RRQ IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A NOCTURNAL
LLJ, ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL COOLING SHOULD GROW TO SUPPORT A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS. IF STORMS DEVELOP, POST-FRONTAL MUCAPES OF AROUND
1500 J/KG WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS CAPE RESIDING IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE POINTS TO SEVERE HAIL BEING A POSSIBILITY, BUT WE
WON'T BANG THE GONG FOR THIS AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS
LIMITED. NBM IS TOO BULLISH WITH POPS FOR THIS SETUP, SO POPS WERE
TAPERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE SPOTTIER COVERAGE OF STORMS PER
HIGH RES GUIDANCE.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES DWINDLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK AS
COOLER NORTHERLIES DEEPEN AND STABILIZE THE COLUMN. FOLLOWING A
BOUT OF MORNING STRATUS, WEDNESDAY'S COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
SWIFT MOVING ENOUGH TO BRING A RETURN TO SSE WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THIS TIME, BUT THESE
CHANCES APPEAR POOR UNDER SHALLOW SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN SW FLOW.
THE NAM/MET ARE OVERDONE WITH STRATUS ALL DAY AND VERY COOL HIGHS
IN THE 50S/60S, SO THE WARMER NBM NUMBERS LOOK BEST AS WE EXPECT
THIN STRATUS TO BREAK OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OPENS WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT BACKING MORE SW IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AND DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UNTIL THEN,
ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE ASCENDING ISENTROPICALLY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK AS THE LLJ
SHOULD BE VEERING AND DIRECTING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST
OF LUBBOCK. LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO ENVELOP A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS
LAYER THINS THROUGH THE DAY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING ENOUGH
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. AGAIN, THE NAM/MET
ARE VERY HEAVY HANDED WITH STRATUS WHICH KEEPS US CAPPED ALL DAY,
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHICH PRESENTS US
WITH ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR AN ACTIVE DRYLINE COMPLETE WITH
SUPERCELLS THANKS TO FAVORABLE SHEAR. NBM POPS WERE SMOOTHED AND
CAPPED AT 50 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE JUMPING TO
LIKELIES OFF THE CAPROCK THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH AHEAD OF AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOTTING. BEING IN THE POST-
DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SW WINDS TO BOOT, FIRE
CONCERNS WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE FUELS HAVE
BEEN MORE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR LATELY. A PACIFIC FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY MAY NUDGE TEMPS LOWER THAN FORECAST, BUT THIS
SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SEES A CANADIAN FRONT THAT SPEEDS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS
FOR SATURDAY KEEPING US COOL AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WITH SHOWER
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. OUR GUT FEELING SAYS THESE NORTHERN
FRONTS IN MARCH ARE OFTEN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND
NBM SUGGEST, SO WE COULD VERY WELL END UP MUCH COOLER AND BONE DRY
ALL DAY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT RACES MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS COULD
HAVE IMPACTS ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND, BUT FOR NOW THE NBM
HOLDS ONTO DAILY RAIN PROSPECTS ALL WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A MOIST SE FETCH FROM THE GULF AND WEAKENING SW FLOW ALOFT AS
UPPER RIDGING EMERGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT LBB AND PVW, BUT CDS COULD SEE CIGS DROP TO NEAR MVFR AND LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY TO NEAR 15 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 80S AND HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 10-15%, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK, WITH
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW TX PANHANDLE UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...51
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