544
FXUS64 KLUB 040331
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
931 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
- A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE DRYLINE THURSDAY WITH SEVERE STORMS.
- FIRE CONCERNS INCREASE FOR FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY DAILY CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A VORTICITY LOBE WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SOUTHERN-STREAM, SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM-CONVEYOR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER W TX,
WITH WEBCAMS PRIOR SUNSET SHOWING A COUPLE OF PATCHES OF SHALLOW,
MID-LEVEL ACCAS AND STUNTED TURRETS THAT WERE ADVECTING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST OVER LBB. MIXED-LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE 04/00Z
RAOBS LAUNCHED FROM WFOS ABQ, AMA, EPZ, AND MAF, WAS PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED, WITH SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE 0-3-KM
LAYER OBSERVED AT ABQ AND EPZ. THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST 100
MB WAS ERODED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT, BUT ABOVE
THE SHALLOW AIRMASS, THE LAPSE RATES WERE DRY ADIABATIC. FARTHER
EAST INTO THE MOIST SECTOR, THE RAOBS FROM FWD AND OUN SAMPLED AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OF ABOUT 1,000-1,500 J/KG, WITH THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EML ECLIPSING THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK PER RECENT SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THE RAP ESTIMATES OF WHERE THE EDGE OF THE CAPE
GRADIENT IS ON PAR WITH THE EARLIER CLOUD OBSERVATIONS, IN ADDITION
TO THE NEIGHBORING RAOBS AT AMA AND MAF. THEREFORE, THE LOW POPS IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS ARE BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS,
AS A STRAY, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PARCELS
ADVECT INTO THE MODEST INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR. A ROGUE
HAILSTONE OF UP TO 1.0" IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
THE ELEVATED STORMS TONIGHT, WITH STORMS MOVING AT A QUICK PACE.
AT THE SURFACE, THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM FRIONA-TO-PVW-TO-GUTHRIE, WITH BRISK, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
AROUND 15-25 MPH IN ITS WAKE. THE THETA-E/MOIST TONGUE CONTINUES TO
NARROW, AND THE MESONET OBSERVATIONS OF THE 330-335 K CORRIDOR
MATCHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ESTIMATED BY
THE RAP ANALYSIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE CWA NEAR 04/06Z (OR
MIDNIGHT CST), WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS EVENTUALLY BACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH ROTATES INTO W TX. LOW
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE CLOUD DECK NOW
FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. THIS STRATUS DECK
SHOULD BE THIN AND CONFINED TO THE TOP OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS,
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT RESULTS IN THE
ENTRAINMENT OF CLOUDS.
THE STRATUS DECK IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ERODING BY THE LATE-MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CAPROCK, WITH CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS STATED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, DUE TO THE SLOW RECOVERY OF THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER. POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS DPVA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE 100TH
MERIDIAN IN TANDEM WITH THE EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. FAILED ATTEMPTS OF CONVECTION WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF PARCELS IN THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT, ESPECIALLY AS THE MID-LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME TURKEY
TOWERS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH ROTATES OFF TO
THE EAST, WITH RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING AREA-WIDE THURSDAY MORNING.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OPENS WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT BACKING MORE SW IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO MAKE THINGS INTERESTING FOR THURSDAY AS GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AND DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UNTIL THEN,
ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE ASCENDING ISENTROPICALLY AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK AS THE LLJ
SHOULD BE VEERING AND DIRECTING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT EAST
OF LUBBOCK. LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO ENVELOP A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BEFORE THIS
LAYER THINS THROUGH THE DAY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING ENOUGH
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. AGAIN, THE NAM/MET
ARE VERY HEAVY HANDED WITH STRATUS WHICH KEEPS US CAPPED ALL DAY,
BUT THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHICH PRESENTS US
WITH ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR AN ACTIVE DRYLINE COMPLETE WITH
SUPERCELLS THANKS TO FAVORABLE SHEAR. NBM POPS WERE SMOOTHED AND
CAPPED AT 50 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE JUMPING TO
LIKELIES OFF THE CAPROCK THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH AHEAD OF AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOTTING. BEING IN THE POST-
DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SW WINDS TO BOOT, FIRE
CONCERNS WILL BE HIGHER ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE FUELS HAVE
BEEN MORE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE BEHAVIOR LATELY. A PACIFIC FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY MAY NUDGE TEMPS LOWER THAN FORECAST, BUT THIS
SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY NIGHT SEES A CANADIAN FRONT THAT SPEEDS INTO THE TRANS-PECOS
FOR SATURDAY KEEPING US COOL AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WITH SHOWER
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. OUR GUT FEELING SAYS THESE NORTHERN
FRONTS IN MARCH ARE OFTEN MUCH STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND
NBM SUGGEST, SO WE COULD VERY WELL END UP MUCH COOLER AND BONE DRY
ALL DAY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT RACES MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS COULD
HAVE IMPACTS ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND, BUT FOR NOW THE NBM
HOLDS ONTO DAILY RAIN PROSPECTS ALL WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A MOIST SE FETCH FROM THE GULF AND WEAKENING SW FLOW ALOFT AS
UPPER RIDGING EMERGES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AT KCDS, KLBB,
AND KPVW. MVFR STRATUS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO VFR
THEREAFTER. UNTIL THEN, A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS W TX, WITH BREEZY, NORTHEAST WINDS TRAILING IN
ITS WAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO TRANSITION TO THE NORTH AT KPVW AND
KLBB SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR -SHRA/-TSRA TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...09
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