883
FXUS64 KLUB 041748
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-27.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A VORTICITY LOBE WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SOUTHERN-STREAM, SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM-CONVEYOR CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER W TX,
WITH WEBCAMS PRIOR SUNSET SHOWING A COUPLE OF PATCHES OF SHALLOW,
MID-LEVEL ACCAS AND STUNTED TURRETS THAT WERE ADVECTING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST OVER LBB. MIXED-LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE 04/00Z
RAOBS LAUNCHED FROM WFOS ABQ, AMA, EPZ, AND MAF, WAS PARTICULARLY
WELL-DEFINED, WITH SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE 0-3-KM
LAYER OBSERVED AT ABQ AND EPZ. THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST 100
MB WAS ERODED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT, BUT ABOVE
THE SHALLOW AIRMASS, THE LAPSE RATES WERE DRY ADIABATIC. FARTHER
EAST INTO THE MOIST SECTOR, THE RAOBS FROM FWD AND OUN SAMPLED AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OF ABOUT 1,000-1,500 J/KG, WITH THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE EML ECLIPSING THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK PER RECENT SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THE RAP ESTIMATES OF WHERE THE EDGE OF THE CAPE
GRADIENT IS ON PAR WITH THE EARLIER CLOUD OBSERVATIONS, IN ADDITION
TO THE NEIGHBORING RAOBS AT AMA AND MAF. THEREFORE, THE LOW POPS IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS ARE BEING MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS,
AS A STRAY, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PARCELS
ADVECT INTO THE MODEST INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR. A ROGUE
HAILSTONE OF UP TO 1.0" IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
THE ELEVATED STORMS TONIGHT, WITH STORMS MOVING AT A QUICK PACE.
AT THE SURFACE, THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM FRIONA-TO-PVW-TO-GUTHRIE, WITH BRISK, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
AROUND 15-25 MPH IN ITS WAKE. THE THETA-E/MOIST TONGUE CONTINUES TO
NARROW, AND THE MESONET OBSERVATIONS OF THE 330-335 K CORRIDOR
MATCHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ESTIMATED BY
THE RAP ANALYSIS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE CWA NEAR 04/06Z (OR
MIDNIGHT CST), WITH POST-FRONTAL WINDS EVENTUALLY BACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH ROTATES INTO W TX. LOW
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE CLOUD DECK NOW
FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. THIS STRATUS DECK
SHOULD BE THIN AND CONFINED TO THE TOP OF THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS,
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR ALOFT RESULTS IN THE
ENTRAINMENT OF CLOUDS.
THE STRATUS DECK IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ERODING BY THE LATE-MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CAPROCK, WITH CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS STATED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, DUE TO THE SLOW RECOVERY OF THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER. POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AS DPVA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE 100TH
MERIDIAN IN TANDEM WITH THE EJECTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. FAILED ATTEMPTS OF CONVECTION WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF PARCELS IN THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT, ESPECIALLY AS THE MID-LEVELS WARM SLIGHTLY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME TURKEY
TOWERS, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH ROTATES OFF TO
THE EAST, WITH RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING AREA-WIDE THURSDAY MORNING.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW EVENTUALLY BECOMING CUTOFF NEAR
THE ROCKIES. A ~994 MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA. BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING HUMIDITIES HIGHER AND ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TX/NM BORDER. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE DAY REMAINS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MORNING IN A SE SURFACE FLOW AND WIDESPREAD
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE EXPECTED. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET.
BY MID-AFTERNOON, THE DRYLINE WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG THE US-385
CORRIDOR WHICH IS ROUGHLY WHERE THE FIRST STORMS WOULD DEVELOP.
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND JET, ALONG
WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE PARAMETERS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S THROUGH THE EVENING, THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-27 IN THE EVENING
PARTICULARLY UNDER A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. MAIN
THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY
DEPART THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL SEE VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. HIGHEST SW WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THE
CAPROCK AND GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO REMAIN AT
LEAST MOSTLY STORM-FREE FROM THURSDAY, ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. NBM POPS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PER USUAL, THIS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC AS A COOL, DRY
AIRMASS LOOKS TO HOLD IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE ONLY CLIPS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH
PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT FROM THE
MAIN FLOW AND STALL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST, REMAINING THERE
ALL WEEKEND. ONCE IT FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE BY MONDAY IT WILL DRIVE
MORE SW FLOW AND CONSEQUENTLY PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION,
RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FADING SLOWLY AND PVW AND CDS WILL BE BACK TO
VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, IFR AND
LIFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH AND SUBJECT ALL TERMINALS
TO SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG AT TIMES BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM S-N AFTER
18Z.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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