774
FXUS64 KLUB 042323
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
523 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS, FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND MUCH
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS.
- COOLER BY THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS LATE THIS MORNING WAS SLOWLY LOSING GROUND WITH
DEEPER MIXING AS TEMPS WARMED INTO THE 50S WELL BEHIND A COLD FRONT
NOW STALLING NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
SATELLITE INDICATES A DEEPER LAYER OF SATURATION. MODELS SAY THIS
LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
LINGERS ALONG THE 300K SURFACE, BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A BLANKET OF STRATUS. MEANWHILE IN THE LOW
LEVELS, S-SE WINDS WILL TREND INCREASINGLY MOIST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
ENCOURAGE STRATUS DECKS TO LOWER TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET OR LESS -
LOWEST ON THE CAPROCK.
SOUNDINGS REVEAL ENOUGH SATURATED THICKNESS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FOR
SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG WHICH MAY CONTINUE ON/OFF THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL A WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
EVEN AS CEILING HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, THERE IS CONCERN
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WHICH
CASTS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ON ENOUGH HEATING FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. CONSIDERING THE STRONGEST MID AND UPPER ASCENT WILL JUST
BE ENTERING CENTRAL NM BY SUNSET THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH,
WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE BACKGROUND ASCENT DURING
THE DAYTIME. THE BRUNT OF OUR ASCENT IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SHOULD FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND A
DRYLINE PROGGED TO SHARPEN OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE DRYLINE APPEARS THE WEAKEST IN TERMS OF
OVERALL WIND CONVERGENCE AS WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND IT ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL (SOUTHERLY IN THIS CASE), YET
ENOUGH OF A DENSITY CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED WHICH ALONE COULD OFFSET
MINIMAL CIN AND GARNER A STORM OR TWO. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND POOLING IS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT
FORECAST TO RESIDE FROM ROUGHLY TULIA TO CHILDRESS BY PEAK HEATING.
PRESSURE FALLS FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE BACK TO NM SHOULD BACK
WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MORE SE OR EVEN EASTERLY RESULTING IN
LOCALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOS SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE GREATEST HAZARD, BUT A
FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE REALIZED NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS IS ON THE TABLE. POP-WISE, THE NBM WAS SCALED
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVERYWHERE. OPTED TO RELEGATE
THE HIGHEST POPS TO OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
WARM FRONT. LASTLY, HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WERE NUDGED LOWER EAST OF
THE DRYLINE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
THURSDAY'S UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
DRYLINE WILL RESULT FOR THE FA AND IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BEGIN
CROSSING THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, QUICKLY
MOVING EAST OF THE FA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL SQUASH
RAIN CHANCES, IT WILL BRING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS RESULTING IN AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREA WIDE WITH NEAR CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THE CAPROCK. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL PARTS OF THE FA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPLITTING THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WITH FRIDAY'S PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PHASING WITH THE MAIN FLOW AND A
SECOND UPPER LOW SPLITTING FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY
RETROGRADING BEFORE SETTLING OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA BY LATE
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE FA
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY COOLING
HIGHS INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF QUICKLY TRANSITIONS THE UPPER LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE TROUGH AND PHASES THE SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN FLOW BY TUESDAY WITH
THE LOW/TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS IS
SIMILAR WITH ITS TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BUT DELAYS THE TRANSITION TO
AN OPEN WAVE UNTIL IT PASSES EAST OF THE FA, AT LEAST ONE DAY AFTER
THE ECMWF. BOTH SOLUTIONS PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. CHANCES WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT PATH AND
LOCATION OF THE LOW/TROUGH. IF THE CURRENT TREND OF HAVING THE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH CONTINUES, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE LOW, HOWEVER, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY, WITH CIGS AND VSBYS
FORECAST TO CRATER INTO IFR AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW. LIFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS LASTING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR TOWARDS MID-DAY, WITH
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BLUSTERY AT ALL TERMINALS. SIGNIFICANT CROSS
WINDS ON RWY 8/26 AT KLBB ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS
AND VSBYS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AT KLBB AND KPVW, WITH KCDS REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF KCDS BEYOND
21Z THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...09
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