193
FXUS64 KLUB 051119
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
519 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- FOG IS FORECAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DENSE.
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS, FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND MUCH
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS.
- COOLER BY THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EJECTING
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, WITH A BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
TRAILING BEHIND AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRAILING
THE COMPACT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WAS NEBULOUS, WITH
ONLY A NARROW WAVE OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES THAT HAVE OTHERWISE
BEEN DAMPENED BY THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS IS EVIDENT
BY THE BIFURCATED BANDS OF CIRRUS ON RECENT GOES-EAST IMAGERY, WITH
THE SOUTHERN-STREAM BAND TRAILING NOT TOO FAR BEHIND THE ROW OF
CUMULONIMBI STRETCHING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MOIST, ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER
THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH CIRRUS FORECAST TO
THICKEN AS THE LEADING WAVE OF DPVA EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND ADVECT POLEWARD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY, AS
850 MB WINDS, WHICH ARE ALREADY BACKED AS PER THE 05/00Z UA CHARTS,
INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS. RAPID
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT, AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTION OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS THURSDAY
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CAPROCK, WITH VERY LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY MOVED THROUGH W TX
LAST NIGHT HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT, AND IS
DRAPED IN A NORTH-SOUTH-ORIENTED MANNER ACROSS EASTERN NM BEFORE
BENDING EASTWARD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. THE FRONT THEN STRETCHES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL N TX, PER METAR AND WTM DATA. A WEAK
ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/OK STATE LINE NEAR PNC-WLD,
WITH ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH
WHERE WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA, WINDS
HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST IN WHAT IS AN ALREADY-MOIST AIRMASS ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION IS PRESENT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, WHICH WILL
UNDERGO WARM-FRONTOGENESIS THURSDAY MORNING AND SURGE POLEWARD
ACROSS W TX BY THE EARLY-AFTERNOON HOURS. A PLUME OF DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE DEMARCATED BY THE
ENTRAINMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK AND THE CESSATION OF FOG
AND/OR DRIZZLE NEAR 18Z.
THE THICKENING CIRRUS DECK WILL BE ONE OF TWO PRIMARY CLOUD LAYERS
TO LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF INSOLATION, AND ULTIMATELY, THE RATE OF
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE COOLED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AS THE STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION POST-FROPA COMPENSATES FOR THE RESTRICTIONS TO
DIABATIC HEATING FROM THE LOW- AND HIGH-ALTITUDE CLOUDS. AS THE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO PIVOT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS,
CYCLOGENESIS OF A 994 MB SURFACE LOW WILL OCCUR IN EASTERN CO AND
GENERATE A MODERATE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SET TO
INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH (I.E., A DIRECT RESULT OF THE STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION), WHICH WILL AID IN THE MIXING OF THE STRATUS WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVELS AND RESULT IN MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THE
DECAYED TRANCHE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED
WEST OF THE MESCALERO ESCARPMENT WILL ALSO TRANSITION INTO A SHARP,
WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE NEAR THE NM STATE LINE, LEAVING NEARLY ALL OF
THE CWA IN THE MOIST SECTOR. WHILE THE DRYLINE WILL BE SHARP, IT
WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW; AND WITH THIS
PARTICULAR DRYLINE BEING IN A MESO-ALPHA-SCALE STATE (I.E., >200
MILES IN LENGTH) AS IT CONNECTS TO THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN CO,
THE POLEWARD FLOW ALONG AND THROUGH IT WILL BE BEREFT OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DESPITE THE STRONG CONFLUENCE. (ELONGATED DRYLINES SUCH
AS THIS ARE TYPICAL OF BOTH EARLY-SEASON AND STRONGLY FORCED
SYSTEMS.) THEREFORE, OPEN WARM SECTOR INITIATION OF AT LEAST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES POLEWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DUE TO THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE WEST,
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO LAG IN TIME RELATIVE
TO THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS, THE LATTER OF WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
NEAR 21-22Z. SINCE THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL BE
MODEST, ONLY A FEW STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY IN THE
CORRIDORS OF WHERE DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS FROM THE
EROSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK. THIS AREA SHOULD BE IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT
ARRIVING IN CONGRUENCE WITH PEAK HEATING. VERTICALLY-VEERING WINDS
THAT BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE 600 MB WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILES IN THE PRESENCE OF AN EML BETWEEN 1,500-2,000 J/KG OF CAPE
FOR MIXED-LAYER PARCELS. INITIAL MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO MERGE AND MORPH INTO A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, WITH A
PRIMARY HAZARD FOR VERY LARGE HAIL UP TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF HAIL
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG, LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE WINDS FACILITATING
THE MAINTENANCE OF WIDE UPDRAFTS AND WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AS LOW AS
9.5 KFT AGL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE EVENT THAT
RIGHTWARD PROPAGATION CAN OCCUR WITHOUT THE EFFECTS OF DESTRUCTIVE
INTERFERENCE COUNTERACTING BUOYANT INFLOW FROM MULTIPLE STORMS
GROUPED CLOSELY TOGETHER.
WEAK STORM-RELATIVE WINDS THROUGH THE DEEP-LAYER AND ANVIL-LEVELS
WILL GARNER HYBRID-HP SUPERCELLS, AND WITH LOW LCLS, ANY TORNADOES
THAT DO FORM MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SEE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX AND THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INTENSIFY BY
06/00Z, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLIC BEHAVIOR OF THE SUPERCELLS AND
POTENT DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO RISK SHORT-LIVED BEFORE
STORMS EITHER EXIT THE CWA OR MERGE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX. THE
FORMER SHOULD COME TO FRUITION BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS DUE TO
THE RATHER BRISK STORM MOTION VECTORS, WHICH ARE NEARLY 30 KT EVEN
FOR RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE TRENDS IN THINKING WITH RESPECT TO STORM COVERAGE, WITH MAINLY
WIDELY-SCATTERED-TO-SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A MORE-ISOLATED RISK FOR ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ELEVATED STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE LEADING
WAVE OF DPVA WOULD FAVOR A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, WITH STORMS WANING
IN COVERAGE PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING BREEZY.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW
DEPARTS NORTHWARD. BREEZY SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY IN ITS WAKE. HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SW PANHANDLE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS AREA WILL BE
WHERE THE MOST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OCCUR, WIDESPREAD
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS STILL MERIT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER
TO THE LOW 80S OFF THE CAPROCK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND
WINDS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH. AN UPPER LOW WILL
SPLIT FROM THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
RELATIVELY BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE THE GREAT
PLAINS AND THUS COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S AND THE DESPITE THE NAM INDICATING
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, THE
AFOREMENTIONED COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WOULD CURTAIL
ANY CHANCES AND LATEST FORECAST THINKING MORE REFLECTS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL STALL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY AND
AGAIN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND HIGHS WILL SOMEWHAT RECOVER FROM
SATURDAY, GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THEREAFTER, WITH THE GFS/GEFS TAKING A MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND
BRINGING THE LOW INTO OUR AREA FASTER. ECMWF/ENS SHOW A SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH THE LOW WEAKENING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE.
NONETHELESS, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY,
WITH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT BEING FINE-TUNED AS TIME EVOLVES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN LOW CIGS
AND VISBYS AT ALL TAF SITES. WITH THE PERSISTENT MOIST FLOW, THESE
LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE FIRST TO IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
A FEW HOURS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH GREATEST CHANCES NEAR THE KCDS TERMINAL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01
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