527
FXUS64 KLUB 051807
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY ON THE CAPROCK WITH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE WARM FRONT, AS OF 11 AM, IS STEADILY PROGRESSING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FA AND IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FA. THE
DRYLINE IS ALSO SLOWLY ON THE MOVE AND IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE
FROM JUST WEST OF CLOVIS SOUTHWARD TO FORT DAVIS. THE DRYLINE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR INTO THE FA, POSSIBLY ONLY MAKING IT AS FAR AS
I 27/US 87 JUST AFTER 00Z BEFORE IT RETREATS BACK WESTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAVE THIS AFTERNOON'S POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO BE
TRIGGERED BY UPPER LIFT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A SUBTLE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM SONORA INTO CHIHUAHUA WILL
LIKELY BE THE SOURCE OF THE UPPER LIFT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FA THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY CI IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 5-
6 PM ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE A GOOD
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S, AND WE WILL SEE 60+ DEWPOINTS
TRANSPORTED IN FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STABILITY
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPE AVERAGING AROUND
1500 TO OVER 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AVERAGING AROUND 40-50
KNOTS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL OVER 2 INCHES.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. BACKED SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP CURVE HODOGRAPHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST.
THE THREAT WILL EXIST AS LONG AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CAN BE
OVERCOME AND STORMS ARE SURFACE BASED AS OPPOSED TO BEING ELEVATED,
WHICH CURRENT CAMS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST EARLY IN THE EVENT WITH THE THREAT TRANSITIONING TO LARGE
HAIL/WIND BY LATE EVENING AS STORMS BECOME LESS DISCRETE AND MORE
MULTICELLULAR. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY WILL BE QUIETER IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNRISE AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TO OUR EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW, SURFACE LOW, AND GOOD MIXING
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM, DRY, WINDY DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE WEST BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20-30 MPH. FUELS
WILL BE DRIER THAN WERE ORIGINALLY FORECASTED YESTERDAY AS AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL LIKELY NOT SEE CONVECTION OR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL,
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER
FOR MOST OF THE FA. THEREFORE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHICH WILL BE PLACED IN A RFD ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RFW, AND IT WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THAT AREA TO RECEIVE WETTING RAINS WITH THIS
EVENING'S POTENTIAL CONVECTION. EVEN WITHOUT WETTING RAINS, FUELS
WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND GIVEN TODAY AND TONIGHT'S MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE STARTING AROUND SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING AS MIXING IS LOST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AFTER A COOL AND MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND, THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
LOOKS MOSTLY MILD AND A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE, ESPECIALLY FOR
EARLY IN THE WEEK AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS INTO W TX.
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING, QUIET WEATHER SHOULD LINGER UNDER MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOTTING SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A DRYLINE INITIALLY JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY RETREAT A BIT AFTER SUNSET AHEAD OF
A CANADIAN FRONT DIVING SOUTH. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE
BOUNDARIES TO CONVECT AS THEY MEET OVERNIGHT IS NON-ZERO, POPS ARE
BEING KEPT UNDER 20% FOR THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS DUE TO A DRY
SIGNAL FROM HIGH RES MODELS. CAA SPILLS SOUTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
A RATHER CHILLY SURFACE HIGH ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. NBM'S HIGHS
ARE SITTING PRETTY MILD COMPARED TO MOS AND SINCE 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN 0C AND 6C DURING THE DAY, HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND LOW 60S SEEM MORE FITTING THAN THE NBM'S WIDESPREAD
MID AND UPPER 60S. THESE HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS NEAR A PLUME OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUDS COMPLETE WITH SOME LOW SHOWER
CHANCES. THESE 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES MAY BE A BIT BULLISH
ESPECIALLY IF THE COOL AND DRY SURFACE RIDGE PROVES STRONGER AND
FASTER.
SATURDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING THE COLDEST IN WELL OVER A WEEK AS
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S SEEM MORE LIKELY THANKS TO THE SURFACE
HIGH PARKING IN OUR AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. THIS HIGH GETS PACKING FOR THE HILL COUNTRY ON SUNDAY ALL
THE WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A LOW PINCHING OFF OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT CRAWLS EAST ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE FOR SUNDAY, JUST ALOFT THERE
WILL BE A MOISTENING FETCH OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE SSW
ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIVER OF SHOWER CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES. THESE CHANCES GROW TO COVER MORE REAL ESTATE ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS WITH PWATS GROWING
TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES AREA WIDE. GIVEN THIS PROTRACTED
PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LOW, NBM'S GENEROUS POPS LOOK GOOD AND HAVE SUPPORT FROM
RECENT GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS LOW AND ITS PARENT TROUGH AXIS
MAY NOW CLEAR THE REGION AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AHEAD OF MILD AND
DRIER SEMI-ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
IFR CEILINGS ARE SET SLOWLY LIFTING TO MVFR FROM S-N BEHIND A WARM
FRONT NEAR LBB AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR TO VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CDS SHOULD PROVE MORE STUBBORN AS WINDS THERE TEND TO
REMAIN MORE ESE KEEPING SOME LIGHT FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTACT
LONGER, BUT THIS LOOKS TO IMPROVE AFTER 21Z OR SO. TS CHANCES
LATER TODAY REMAIN SLIM AT LBB AND PVW WHILE CDS STANDS TO SEE
STORMS SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA TOWARD SUNSET. ANY OF THESE TS COULD
GROW SEVERE WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
LOW CIGS TO REVISIT CDS OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE DRYLINE SWEEPS EAST
FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY NOON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING
WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO BETWEEN 7-10 PERCENT ACROSS CAPROCK WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS ONLY DROPPING TO 10-15 PERCENT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH WESTERLY 20-25 MPH 20 FOOT WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE CAPROCK. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ON THE CAPROCK AND A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT OFF THE CAPROCK. THE FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS IF WETTING RAINS ARE
RECEIVED WITH THIS EVENINGS EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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