430
FXUS64 KLUB 060506
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1106 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- BREEZY SW WINDS FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY SW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL MODERATE LOW TEMPERATURES, IN THE 50S AND
EVEN 60S OFF THE CAPROCK. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
~997 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS, HIGHEST
OCCURRING ON THE CAPROCK. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. COMBINED WITH THE SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OFF THE CAPROCK. A WIDE RANGE OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN ORDER, FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
FAR SW PANHANDLE TO THE MID 80S OFF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN MORE WESTERLY INTO THE
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THOUGH SATURDAY MORNING, SWITCHING
WINDS BACK TO NORTHERLY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AN UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED THROUGH AND TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND MUCH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS,
HOWEVER EVEN THAT IS OPTIMISTIC. THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND
FROM GULF ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS, HOWEVER OTHER THAN
NAM CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS, IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLIES AND
HIGHS WILL SLIGHTLY RECOVER FROM SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 70S. THE
UPPER LOW WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS ON MONDAY AND A GENERALLY
WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. THE LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AT WHICH TIME OUR AREA WELL SEE THE BEST
SW PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THUS RAINFALL CHANCES. MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE THEREAFTER WITH THE GFS TAKING A MUCH SLOWER
TRACK AND KEEPING THE LOW CLOSED ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WHEREAS ECMWF SHOWS IT BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND
DEPARTING EASTWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY. IN ANY CASE, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, BROAD BRUSH POPS CONTINUE IN THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWESTWARD BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. GUSTS
TO 30-35 KT WILL BE COMMON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SIGNIFICANT CROSS
WINDS ON RWY 17/35 EXPECTED AT KLBB. BLDU WILL AFFECT KLBB AND KPVW
BY THE LATTER HALF OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT VSBYS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH NEAR DUSK AND TRANSITION TO
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPROCK ON
FRIDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH (HIGHEST OVER THE FAR SW
TEXAS PANHANDLE) AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A RANGELAND
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE OFF THE CAPROCK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO NORTHERLY AROUND 15-20 MPH. GIVEN THE COOLER, DRY AIRMASS,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY ARE LOW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09
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