593
FXUS64 KLUB 071734
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, WITH A CHILLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ALSO LIKELY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A PLEASANT AND UNEVENTFUL AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEATHER-
WISE, WITH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S TODAY. TONIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING A RELATIVELY CHILLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE OVERALL PATTERN FLIPS
BACK TOWARDS ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
FROM A BIT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSITING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL IN TURN DEEPEN A COMPACT SURFACE TROUGH
OVER SE COLORADO, BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO OUR REGION. THESE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY TAME OVER MOST OF OUR
AREA, BUT IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY OVER THE SW TX PANHANDLE WHERE
SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP AS A RESULT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 70S SUNDAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LIKELY TO REACH 80 OFF THE
CAPROCK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PACKAGE IS THE RETURN OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY BEFORE THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF
FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR THE WEEKEND. WE WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 80S WITH SOME AREAS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTH ROLLING PLAINS COULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ON MONDAY. A LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING LATE
MONDAY MORNING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GIVING WAY TO BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS,
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FILL IN OVER THE REGION WITH MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA MEXICO BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
SLIGHT CHANCES WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING
OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS
OVER HEAD TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN TROUGH. UPPER ASCENT FROM THIS
UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROLONG SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE POST FRONTAL HIGH QUICKLY
FILLING IN OVER THE REGION EFFECTIVELY DRYING OUT CONDITIONS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ABSORBED INTO NORTHERLY FLOW
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AGAIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
WILL SEE A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS DOESN'T LAST LONG AS 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS, AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER DANGER LOOK
TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT ALL SITES. RELATIVELY STRONG NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE START OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, THEN BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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