935
FXUS64 KLUB 081106
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- MILDER HIGHS FOR SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
FOLLOWING A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE
HIGH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY WARM 40+ DEGREES IN MANY AREAS AS
MILD AND BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN. ALOFT, H5 HEIGHTS
SHOULD JUMP 30 METERS THROUGH THE MORNING IN SW FLOW THANKS TO
SHORTWAVE RIDGING UPSTREAM AND LEE TROUGHING IN CO AND NM. THIS
RIDGING IS TIED TO A CUTOFF LOW SETTLING NEAR BAJA CA THAT MAY
BRING US IMPACTFUL WEATHER BY TUESDAY. UNTIL THEN, LEE TROUGHING
FROM CO-NM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SPUR BREEZIER SW FLOW (HIGHEST
IN THE SOUTHWEST TX PH). SUNDAY NIGHT SEES A WELCOME INFLUX OF
GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR FAR S-SE ZONES ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG, BUT ANYTHING MORE (E.G., RAIN PER THE NAM)
IS UNLIKELY AS THIS LAYER OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS RATHER
THIN AND UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE PRECIP.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
MONDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, BUT THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MIXING TAPS INTO MUCH WARMER AND DRIER
WESTERLIES ALOFT. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRYING IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ROLLING PLAINS, WHERE A DRYLINE IS LIKELY TO EMERGE AND REMAIN
SITUATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING TO THE CAPROCK
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RETREAT OCCURS AS WSW WINDS IN THE LOW/MID-LEVELS
BACK MORE SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING BAJA LOW PROGGED
TO BE IN NORTHERN SONORA BY TUESDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH PWATS
RISING TO AROUND 1.2" OFF THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW, THERE IS STILL A WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE LOW WHICH CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE GENEROUS
POPS OF THE NBM FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, YET THIS SLOWER
THEME WOULD BOLSTER PROSPECTS FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DRYLINE IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE
BEEN IN GOOD ACCORD WITH THE LOW OPENING UP AND SPEEDING ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT PHASES WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS LARGER TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT OUR WAY ON WEDNESDAY THAT IS LIKELY TO OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE
GULF THROUGH LATE WEEK AMID DEEPENING NW FLOW. THE WEEK AS A WHOLE
IS SHAPING UP VERY MILD SAVE FOR WEDNESDAY'S COOLDOWN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
ALTHOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT ALL TAF
SITES. LOW CIGS AND VISBYS MAY BE ENTERING THE TERMINALS MONDAY
MORNING AROUND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
ELEVATED TO OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
SOUTH PLAINS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
COMBINE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM RHS OF 10 TO
13 PERCENT. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON UNTIL 8 PM. THESE WINDS WILL RETURN AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS RAISING
THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...01
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