338
FXUS64 KLUB 081753
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1253 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
- COOLER WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AND TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE MOST BREEZY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED CLOSEST TO THE LOW OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE WHERE
BRIEF GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH SUBTLE 500 MB HEIGHT RISES WILL BRING WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S. ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MORE BREEZY WINDS THERE. A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR
THE FAR SW TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT, MODERATING MONDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW
50S. A CURRENTLY STALLED LOW OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY LIFTING A RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF IT. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO ~576-579 DM AND CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S. AGAIN, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
COMBINED WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET, FORCING WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TIMING, THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE LESS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LATEST SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE DOES NOT
INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF OVER THIS TIMEFRAME, CAMS DO SHOW IT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH PLAINS. A BRIEF LULL WOULD LIKELY OCCUR LATE-
MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS
NORTHWARD. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL FALL AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW, HOWEVER
PERSISTENT BREEZY SW FLOW NEAR 25 MPH WILL KEEP HIGHS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NM BY THE
EARLY EVENING, A DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP OFF THE CAPROCK. WHERE
EXACTLY REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST FROM CHILDRESS THROUGH STONEWALL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FORCING AND HIGHER PWATS AROUND 1",
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
POTENTIALLY SUSTAINED NEAR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS SUCH,
HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S. SLIGHTLY NW TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AND GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMING AND
DRY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW ON MONDAY, POTENTIALLY SUSTAINED
UP TO 20 MPH OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH HIGHS
INCREASING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S AND HUMIDITIES NEAR 10%, NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA, WITH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY FALL
TUESDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE, ALTHOUGH BREEZY SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING AT LEAST BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...19
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