524
FXUS64 KLUB 091802
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
102 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
CAPROCK AND THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
- A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
- BLUSTERY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK, WITH A WARM-UP TO FOLLOW INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
LOW STRATUS/FOG HAS FINALLY ERODED ACROSS THE FA AS DRYER AIR BEGINS
TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. WE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO SEE WINDS BECOME
MORE BREEZY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW BREAKS FROM
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THESE BREEZY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
CONTINUE AS PLANNED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
MIXING IS LOST AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO KANSAS
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY BEFORE MOVING MORE NORTHEASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL HELP RETURN MOISTURE TO THE FA, ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A DRYLINE IS PROGGED MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FA BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE GOOD FOR SUSTAINING
CONVECTION GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, SURFACE CONVERGENCE, AND
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL UPWARDS OF 2
INCHES OR GREATER AND WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. AREAS ON THE CAPROCK ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BEING MOSTLY LIMITED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY STORMS REMAINING BY THE LATE EVENING
SHOULD EXIT EAST OF THE FA BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND WILL HELP TO COOL WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS
INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS POST FRONTAL HEIGHT RISES AROUND 6-7 MB/3 HOURS ARE
PROGGED. WINDS COULD EASILY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MID
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON, AFTER WHICH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
WILL ALLOW FOR MORNING LOWS TO DROP TO FREEZING/LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CAPROCK, MID/UPPER 30S OFF THE CAPROCK. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW DOMINATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH AMPLIFYING AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY INTO THE MIDWEST SUNDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
WINDY FROPA SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS-20KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>023.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...12
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