765
FXUS64 KLUB 101120
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS, WITH A LOWER RISK FOR STORMS ON
THE CAPROCK.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.
- WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA, WITH A BROADLY CYCLONIC TROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY A 125 KT JET
STREAK AT 250 MB ROUNDING ITS BASE, MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGHING FEATURED A CLOSED LOW
THAT MANAGED TO BECOME CUT-OFF, EVIDENT ON BOTH WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY
AND BY THE 09/12Z AND 10/00Z OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED UA CHARTS, AS
CONVECTION WAS ONGOING WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
BAROTROPIC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SONORAN DESERT. GLM DATA HAS ALSO
DETECTED PERIODIC BURSTS OF HIGHER FLASH DENSITIES, BUT LIGHTNING
DENSITY WAS LOW OTHERWISE. CLOSED LOWS THAT PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TYPICALLY BODE WELL FOR STORM CHANCES
ACROSS W TX. FARTHER SOUTH, A SHARPLY CYCLONIC, SOUTHERN-STREAM
TROUGH WAS JUXTAPOSED TO THE BAROTROPIC LOW, WHICH WILL SERVE AS THE
IMPETUS FOR THE LOW TO LOSE ITS BAROTROPY WHILE REMAINING CLOSED AS
IT ROTATES EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE 250 MB AND 500 MB JET STREAKS HAVE NOSED INTO W
TX, EVIDENT BY THE THICK CIRRUS BANDING BISECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN
TRANCHE OF THE CWA. GRAVITY WAVES WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRRUS
BANDS, SERVING AS AN INDICATOR OF THE INTENSITY OF THE MOIST,
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE 700 MB TROUGH REMAINED WEST OF THE CWA
PER THE 10/00Z UA CHARTS, AND THERE WERE SOME BILLOWS OBSERVED VIA
WEBCAMS ACROSS LBB EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE 00Z RAOB FROM WFO MAF
SAMPLED A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER THAT ASCENDS TO A SHALLOW WARM
NOSE BETWEEN 525-500 MB, WITH A SLIVER OF CAPE CONTAINED WITHIN THE
MID-LEVELS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED, NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HWY-385 THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS TUESDAY, AND POPS HAVE BEEN OUTLINED FOR THOSE LOCALES BETWEEN
06-12Z. STORM CHANCES ARE NIL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT OTHERWISE.
AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA ALONG A LINE FROM
CDS-PVW, AND INTERSECTS A WEAK CYCLONE ROTATING NEAR ROW. WINDS HAVE
SINCE BACKED POLEWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH, WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX
PH PER RECENT WTM DATA. FARTHER NORTHEAST, ANOTHER LEE CYCLONE WAS
LOCATED IN NORTHWESTERN OK NEAR END AND AVK, RESULTING IN THE
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST-ORIENTED MANNER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGO WARM-FRONTOGENESIS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE OK PH, WITH RAPID MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CWA. THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE 60-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WAS
ANALYZED NEAR SWW, AND THE EXPECTATION IS FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S TO ADVECT INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE WEAK CYCLONE NEAR ROW WILL ALSO ROTATE NORTHWARD IN
CONGRUENCE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH, ALLOWING THE ALREADY-DIFFUSE
DRYLINE PRESENT IN THE TX BIG BEND TO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. FARTHER WEST, A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AND EXTENDED SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITH THE DRYLINE
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A NARROW, PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR EVOLVING
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A BIMODAL EPISODE OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TODAY, INCLUDING: A RISK
FOR SURFACE-BASED, SEVERE-CALIBER STORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS; AND
FAST-MOVING, HIGH-BASED STORMS WEST OF THE DRYLINE, THE LATTER OF
WHICH WILL POSE A MINIMAL SEVERE RISK. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL LOSE ITS BAROTROPY, BUT REMAIN CLOSED, AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGHING. THE PRIMARY
VORTICITY LOBE WILL EJECT INTO THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSED, ALBEIT COMPACT, AS IT
ROTATES OVER W TX TUESDAY EVENING. A MIXED-MODE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN. THE 10/00Z RAOB
FROM WFO ABQ ALSO OBSERVED STRONG, MIXED-LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION,
WITH NEAR-SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE SURFACE-TO-3-KM
LAYER, AND AN LCL NEAR 550 MB. ADVECTION OF HIGH THETA-E AIR WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG THERMAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR AMIDST
INTENSE, LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY, CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES NEAR
2,500 J/KG IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS, IN ADDITION TO CLOUD-LAYER
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 70 KT AND 50 KT, RESPECTIVELY,
WILL FACILITATE A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE HAIL IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH ACROSS THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN POTENTIALLY SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS
MULTI-CELLS, WITH THE PROVISO THAT THE DEEP- AND CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
WILL FAVOR THE MAINTENANCE OF MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES, AS LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES SHOULD FAIL TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS IN THE MOIST
SECTOR, BUT THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL CURTAIL THE FLASH
FLOODING RISK. FARTHER WEST ONTO THE CAPROCK, HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, WITH LCLS ROOTED AT THE TOP OF THE DRYLINE AIRMASS, OR
ABOVE 700 MB. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION, IN ADDITION TO THE
CONSISTENT INDICATION BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE MAINTENANCE OF A
SLIM EML, LEADS TO THE THINKING THAT A LOCALIZED DRY-MICROBURST
EVENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WERE RAISED AREA-WIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OF A 994 MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE ONGOING NEAR THE RATON
MESA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH, ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE, WITH BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPROCK OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE GUSTS GENERATED BY THE HIGH-BASED
STORMS. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP ON THE
CAPROCK, BUT THIS WINDOW IS NARROW. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA AFTER DARK AND OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE, WITH WINDS
TEMPORARILY DIMINISHING AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH SLOSHES INTO
THE CWA AND A WEAK CYCLONE FORMS ON THE CAPROCK. A POLAR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG WINDS TO FOLLOW.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRESSURE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH WILL CONSTITUTE A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL DRIVE HIGHER
WINDS RATHER THAN A LOW-LEVEL JET. NBM CONTINUES TO COME IN A BIT
LOW, AND SPEEDS/GUSTS HAVE BEEN MANUALLY RAISED. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE IN ORDER ONCE TUESDAY'S STORM POTENTIAL HAS SUBSIDED.
AT THIS TIME, SUSTAINED WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT SAID, UNFAVORABLE FUELS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S WILL CURTAIL ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A NW TO ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
WITH GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO THE EAST. SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW AND EVENTUALLY DUE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUAL WARM UP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD 90S BECOMING MORE
LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. LUBBOCK'S RECORD HIGH OF 85 WILL BE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
TAF SITES. VERY ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF
AT THE MOMENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01
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