330
FXUS64 KLUB 101743
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1243 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OFF THE CAPROCK.
- COOLER AND WINDY WEDNESDAY, THANKS TO AN EARLY MORNING COLD
FRONT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TO END THE WEEK, WITH OUR NEXT BIG COOL DOWN
TO START THE NEW WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO, WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT THEN INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS MID
TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAIL, WORKING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION WHILE
ALSO INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT VIA THE H5 70+KT JET STREAK. ALL
THIS TO SAY, CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVERHEAD, WITH THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
CONFINED FARTHER EAST NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT, THIS
PATTERN SEEMS TO FAVOR THE SETUP OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE PRIMED ENVIRONMENT
TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL RESIDE. AS A RESULT, THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR
AREA LOOKS TO BE LIMITED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
NONETHELESS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK, WITH HI-RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE
HRRR/NAM/RAP PLACING THE DRYLINE (WHICH AS OF 12 PM CDT WAS STILL
PARKED ACROSS EASTERN NM) ACROSS OUR MOST EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE CONDITIONAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY, ANY STORMS
THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE GIVEN THE PRIMED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
7 TO 8 C/KM WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AROUND 50 KNOTS. IN ADDITION TO MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500
J/KG, THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. DESPITE THE SUPPORTIVE SET UP
FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND, THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW ACROSS OUR
AREA GIVEN WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR AND RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS. OVERALL,
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
WHILE SEVERE STORMS FAVOR THE ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER, IF THE
DRYLINE SETS UP FARTHER WEST, COMPARED TO WHAT HI-RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGESTS, WE COULD SEE THE WESTWARD EXPANSION IN POPS AND SEVERE
WEATHER TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING AT THIS POINT IN
TIME.
OVERNIGHT THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
REGION, TAKING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH IT WITH A MILD AND
BREEZY NIGHT IN STORE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY, THANKS TO A FROPA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS AREA IN AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT, ENTERING OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AROUND 10Z TO 12Z. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT, NOT TO OUR SURPRISE, NBM WINDS
SEEM FAR TOO LOW AND HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE USING A BLEND OF NBM75TH
AND CONSMOS TO ALIGN CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE DEPICTING WINDS SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE, A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, SOUTH PLAINS, AND ROLLING PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A COOLER
AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH
HIGHS MUCH COOLER FROM THE NEAR RECORD BREAKING HEAT TODAY IN THE
60S AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AS A
SERIES OF WAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE UPPER
RIDGING WORKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE NEAR THE
SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO PREVAIL AIDING IN WAA INTO THE
REGION. THUS, WE EXPECT THE WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WIDESPREAD IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THANKFULLY, THESE
SUPER WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH ENSEMBLES HINTING
AT OUR NEXT COOL DOWN SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE GLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SENDS A FROPA SOUTHWARD BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL TO START THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
IN ADDITION TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
EAST THAN ALL THREE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD
BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT, AND WILL PICK BACK UP BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...26
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