201
FXUS64 KLUB 111700
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- COOL BUT WINDY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF BLDU EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
- COOLER WEATHER TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE WARM WEATHER
RETURNS BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COOLER BUT WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAPROCK
REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 11 AM CDT, THE FROPA THAT BROUGHT THE
COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH IT, HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FA CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WICHITA
FALLS TO SNYDER TO FORT STOCKTON. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
REMAINED RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 55 MPH. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN A FEW LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH THIS FROPA WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER H8 WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE, MAINTAINING THE WINDY SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE AREAS OF BLDU WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION, BEFORE WE SEE CLEARING SKIES AS WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING THE COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE
NORTH IN PLACE, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP NEARLY 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER FROM WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CALMING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO TAP INTO THE COOLER AIRMASS AND ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
HEADED INTO THURSDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVERHEAD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS TO OUR WEST WHILE TROUGHING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND BREEZY,
ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARMER AS WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK AND NOT AS
BREEZY AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, DRIVING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS WE SEE SLIGHTLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THUS, LEADING TO LOW-END BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST
TO 35 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DESPITE THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS COMBINED WITH ERCS
AROUND THE 50TH TO 74TH PERCENTILE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST AND MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WHILE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN
HALF. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP, THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TO START THE EXTENDED, WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH, BEFORE WE SEE EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AID IN WAA WHILE
THICKNESS AND HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECASTED HIGHS
ON FRIDAY REMAIN WIDESPREAD IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, BUT WE
REALLY WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FORECASTED IN THE 80S AND 90S.
SATURDAY HIGHS AT OUR CLIMATE SITES LBB AND CDS WILL THREATEN TO
BREAK OR TIE RECORDS DATING BACK TO 1972 (86 DEGREES) AT LBB AND
1908 (92 DEGREES) AT CDS. A SHORT-LIVED REPRIEVE FROM THE WARMTH IS
EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK, THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH IN TURN WILL WORK TO SWING A FROPA THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY. COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, MODELS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE FROPA TIMING, NOW SUGGESTING AN AFTERNOON FRONTAL ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO AN EARLY MORNING ARRIVAL. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY
A ROLE IN HOW WARM WE GET SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES NOW SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER FROM YESTERDAY'S AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE IN THE
70S AND 80S. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN NBM TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE, HOWEVER HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. THEREAFTER, THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WHILE THE WARM WEATHER RETURNS BY MID-WEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WORKS TO MOVE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST REGION AIDING IN HIGHS BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TO END
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
STOUT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AFTER AN
EARLY-MORNING FROPA. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45+ KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. THE WIND
HAS LOFTED BLOWING DUST, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MVFR VISIBILITY AT
LBB MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE RESTRICTIONS FROM BLDU WILL CEASE AS
THE WIND DECREASES, WITH A RETURN TO VFR AREA-WIDE AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING (AWW) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
LBB UNTIL 3 PM CDT. VFR WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS VEER FROM NORTHEAST THIS EVENING TO SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO MORE TYPICAL BREEZY LEVELS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23
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