584
FXUS64 KLUB 120516
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- BREEZY AND WARM WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY.
- RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BEFORE STRONG WINDS AND FIRE
CONCERNS RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
- BRIEF COOLDOWN MONDAY, THEN WARMING WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY EASED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF COOL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS BY SUNRISE AND THEN SET ITS SIGHTS ON EAST TEXAS BY EVENING.
IN ITS WAKE, LEE TROUGHING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME BETTER
DEFINED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO, ALLOWING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY - ALTHOUGH NOWHERE NEAR AS
STRONG AS IN RECENT DAYS. STILL, THE NBM WINDS NEEDED SOME UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE BREEZIER MOS NUMBERS AND AN AXIS
OF STRONGER 850–700 MB FLOW, YIELDING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THESE
WINDS BOOST CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MILDEST HIGHS, IN THE MID 70S, SHOULD FOCUS WITHIN THIS STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW, WHILE VALUES AROUND 70 EXTEND FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOUTHWEST BREEZES VEER WNW
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAGS THE LEE TROUGH
ACROSS OUR REGION, RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
FRIDAY OPENS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
A DECAYING BACKDOOR FRONT THAT DELIVERS LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS THICKNESSES KEEP CLIMBING, ALLOWING HIGHS
TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE SPURRING LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN COLORADO. LEE
TROUGHING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO DOES NOT SHARPEN MUCH DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY, SO WESTERLY WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO REACH BREEZY LEVELS.
THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT A DOME OF VERY WARM 850–700 MB TEMPERATURES
OUR WAY, OPENING THE DOOR TO POTENTIAL RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS AT
LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS (RECORDS ARE 86 AND 92, RESPECTIVELY).
SADLY, THE WEEKEND DOES NOT END AS QUIETLY AS IT BEGINS. INDICATIONS
ARE MOUNTING FOR A STRONG FROPA TO RACE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT COULD BRING 25
TO 35 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 45+ MPH, AND POTENTIALLY
MORE BLOWING DUST.
COOL AIR LINGERS MONDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH
ANOMALOUS RIDGING (590 DAM) ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WHILE DEEP
TROUGHING ENGULFS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS NO PRECIPITATION FOR WEST TEXAS, WHICH
IS NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
QUICKLY REBOUND TOWARD MIDWEEK AS BREEZIER DOWNSLOPE WINDS RETURN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AND BECOME
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY ON BREEZY AND DRY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. WITH WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO NEIGHBORING AREAS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS, WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK FARTHER SOUTH.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN AREAS, WITH A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ELSEWHERE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECLINE TO 15 MPH OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30
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