537
FXUS64 KLUB 121806
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
106 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- AN ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- BENIGN AND WARMER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT, WITH
THE FORECAST REMAINING DRY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
17Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BELT OF BROAD, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ENCOMPASSING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S., WITH A
PROGRESSIVE, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN SITUATED OVER THE 49TH
PARALLEL AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE TRANSLATING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS HAS
GENERATED A LARGE-SCALE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE, AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BRISK, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING AS A LEE CYCLONE CURRENTLY IN SOUTHEASTERN CO ROTATES INTO
THE CWA. THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO VEER WESTWARD, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CWA
BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE WARMED SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE EFFECTS OF ADIABATIC COMPRESSION FROM THE WESTERLY
BREEZE. CAA WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NIL WITH THIS DRY FRONT, WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY DUE
TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES. HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHILE REACHING
THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S SOUTH OF THE HWY-86 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LEE CYCLONE ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS, WITH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AMIDST COOL TEMPERATURES.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINTAINED SATURDAY, WITH AN
AMPLIFYING, SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THE RESPECTIVE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR 990 MB IN EASTERN CO, CAUSING
WINDS TO TRANSITION TO THE WEST SATURDAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT
IN SUBSTANTIAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER, WITH PBL HEIGHTS
SOARING UP TO AND ABOVE 500 MB. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
RISE NEAR 25 DEG C, NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ARE ALSO ON THE TABLE AT CDS
AND LBB SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUCH BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES WILL ALSO
GARNER AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK DESPITE THE WESTERLY WINDS
BEING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, AS RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
SINGLE-DIGITS AMIDST SUBSTANTIAL FUEL LOADING.
WEST TEXAS WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY, AS A STRONG, POLAR COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE
BECOMING NEUTRALLY-TILTED. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
TX PH, A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING ITS BASE WILL BE APPROACHING
100 KT, WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERATE AN INTENSE ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE IN THE WAKE OF A STEEPLY SLOPED COLD FRONT, WITH POST-FROPA
PRESSURE TENDENCIES SPIKING BETWEEN 12-16 MB/6 HR. WINDS WERE RAISED
TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CWA WITHIN THE ADVISORY-LEVEL, BUT A HIGH
WIND EVENT MAY MATERIALIZE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SUNDAY.
CAA WILL BE STRONG, WITH SUB-FREEZING LOWS FORECAST HEADING INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH AHEAD OF A 1030-1034 MB
SURFACE HIGH ROTATING INTO W TX. BLOWING DUST MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, BUT DUST WILL BE MORE-WIDESPREAD IN THE
EVENT HIGH WINDS OCCUR. THEREFORE, DUST HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS THEN
FORECAST TO TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHIFTING EASTWARD AS ANOMALOUS
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. POPS REMAIN NIL FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15KTS-20KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30KTS. CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY BLDU REMAINS LOW AND THEREFORE OPTED
FOR NO TAF MENTION. BREEZY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING, REMAINING ELEVATED AROUND 15KT OVERNIGHT. OVERALL, VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>032.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...12
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