251
FXUS64 KLUB 130516
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- QUIET FRIDAY WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- STRONG WINDS, DUST, AND FIRE CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY.
- COOL MONDAY THEN WARMING AND CONTINUED DRY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
STEADY SOUTHWEST BREEZES LATE THIS EVENING WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AT 10 PM A SOLID 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER ON THE CAPROCK
COMPARED TO JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THE 10 PM SURFACE MAP FEATURED A LEE
TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK COURTESY OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE WAVE WILL VEER
SW WINDS TO THE NW BY SUNRISE, BEFORE SWINGING NE BY LATE MORNING AS
A DECAYING AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT BACKDOORS ITS WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FROM ABOUT 10 AM UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
NE WINDS PICK UP TO 15-20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN AS HIGHS MANAGE TO
WARM ABOVE TODAY'S READINGS. THIS FEAT IS THANKS TO DEEPER MIXING
INTO A RESIDUAL WARM DOME FROM 850-700 MB CURRENTLY ADVECTING OVER
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LIGHT ESE WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR COOLER LOWS THAN FRIDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING VERY JEKYLL AND HYDE AS WE START WITH VERY
WARM AND RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS (PARTICULARLY AT LUBBOCK), COMPLETE
WITH LIGHT WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A NEFARIOUS TWIST FOR SUNDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT DELIVERS 30 TO 40+ MPH NORTHERLY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST. THIS TWIST IS THE RESULT OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY TO ENGULF THE WHOLE OF THE
GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A 160-180 KNOT UPPER JET. THE
SURFACE RESPONSE WILL BE SWIFT CYCLOGENESIS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT RACES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THE FOLLOWING
AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY, WE'LL BE SPARED FROM THE COLDEST PLUNGE OF MODIFIED CP
AIR ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE SHEER PRESSURE RESPONSE FROM
RECORD HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S ON SATURDAY TO HIGHS IN THE 50S ON
SUNDAY WILL FUEL A STOUT NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WITH PROGGED 3-HR
MSLP RISES TOUCHING 14 MB. NBM'S POST-FRONTAL WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE
LAGGING THE MUCH STRONGER MOS VALUES OF RECENT DAYS, SO THESE WERE
BOOSTED USING A BLEND OF ITS 75TH PERCENTILE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
30-40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 60 MPH, GIVEN
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A 40-50 KNOT LLJ AFFECTING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR TO OUR HEFTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH BLOWING DUST, DUST IS LIKELY TO BE A FACTOR ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANY A SURFACE HIGH FOR MONDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE UA PATTERN
GROWS EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED THEREAFTER AS A REMARKABLY WARM H5 HIGH
UPWARDS OF 595 DAM UNFOLDS OVER SOCAL FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A
PORTION OF WHICH SHOULD EXPAND OUR WAY BY LATE WEEK ENSURING A QUICK
RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS (POSSIBLY RECORDS) WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE BY MORNING,
BEFORE VEERING SE AND DIMINISHING BY EVENING. VFR WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19
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