637
FXUS64 KLUB 132316
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- BONE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS.
- A HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AND BLOWING DUST.
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING, WITH A GRADUAL
WARM-UP THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A BELT OF BROAD, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVER W TX, AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF BAJA CA. OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED CIRRUS BANDING ORIGINATING
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24-HOURS, AND THE CWA WILL
OTHERWISE BE BEREFT OF MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. CLOUD-LAYER
FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING WESTWARD SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ONSET
OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH AN EXPECTATION
FOR A BONE DRY AIRMASS TO EVOLVE AREA-WIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR SPS, WITH A TROUGH
BRANCHING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO JTN AND LUV. A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
STEMMED NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE TX PH, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY
BREEZY DUE TO THE WEAK, ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE GENERATED BY THE
PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW; AND WINDS WERE RAISED A FEW KT TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND DECAY
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH NEAR 1010 MB SETTLES INTO
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
YIELD COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA FOLLOWING THE FRONTOLYSIS
WILL TRANSITION INTO A DRYLINE SATURDAY AS LARGE-SCALE, GEOSTROPHIC
DEFORMATION INCREASES ALOFT AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMERGING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A SHARP, WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING NEAR THE 100TH
MERIDIAN. THE ZEPHYR WILL RETURN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA, AND
DRY-BULBING WILL BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE AS BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
SOARS TO NEAR 400 MB. WHILE CIRROSTRATUS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY, THE COMBINATION OF 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 25 DEG C, THE EXTREMELY DEEP MIXING
YIELDING T/TD SPREADS APPROACHING 75 DEGREES, AND THE WESTERLY
BREEZE, WILL YIELD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LBB AND NEAR-RECORD
HIGHS AT CDS SATURDAY. HIGHS WERE NUDGED UPWARD FROM THE NBM, AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO LOWERED, WHICH WILL YIELD RH MINIMA AT OR EVEN
BELOW 5-PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL, AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS, AS FUEL LOADING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A HIGH
WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. DETAILS BELOW.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
AN ACTIVE START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH COOLER, DRIER,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS, BEFORE QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK. BY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE THE DEEPENING H5 TROUGH DIG THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION, WITH THE CORE OF THE +90KT JET STREAK
TRANSLATING INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST, A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL FIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. MOST GUIDANCE HAS
BECOME MORE IN TUNE WITH FROPA TIMING, ARRIVING BY THE MID-
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THIS FRONT THERE IS A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AN EARLIER FROPA
ARRIVAL, AS THIS TENDS TO BE THE CASE WITH FRONTS LIKE THIS. OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. A
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS AT THE H7 AND H8 LEVEL WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A RESULT. THE CORE OF HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS DOES LOOK TO SET UP FARTHER TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE OKC METRO,
NONETHELESS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER, WE CAN EXPECT STRONGER SPEEDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS, COMBINED WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING
3 HOUR MSLP CHANGES AROUND 11 TO 15 MB BEHIND THE FROPA SUGGEST A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS SUNDAY. LREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES INDICATE ABOUT A 60% TO 90% CHANCE OF HIGH WIND
CRITERIA BEING MET, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES ACROSS AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK WHERE WE EXPECT HIGHER SPEEDS TO OCCUR. GIVEN THESE
PROBABILITIES AND THE SYNOPTIC SET UP, WE OPTED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND
WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH.
WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF A FASTER PROGRESSING FRONT, NBM
TEMPERATURES SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE ANALYSIS, SO
OPTED FOR COOLER NBM 10TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS. AS ALWAYS, A
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL SEE WARMER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DESPITE THE
"COOLER" TEMPERATURES, A DRIER AIRMASS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE
REGION WITH THE FRONT COMBINED WITH HIGH WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND DRIVEN RFTIS ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 5 WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH RH DRIVEN RFTIS NOT AS HIGH BUT
STILL ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE RECENT DAYS,
WITH ERCS AROUND 80 TO 90%, COMBINED WITH THE WINDY AND DRY DAY
EXPECTED, THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING, RELAXING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
MORE SOUTHERLY. MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
EXPECTED AS THE COOLER AIRMASS STRUGGLES TO MIX OUT. HOWEVER,
INCREASED THICKNESS AND HEIGHTS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS AN 596 DAM
UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THUS LEADING TO THE RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY:
NORTHERLY WINDS AS OF THIS WRITING WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL BECOME
EAST BY SUNSET, AS A SURFACE LOW AND WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS W TX. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG
SOUTHWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT,
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. RH WILL RECOVERY WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 35 PERCENT ALONG THE NM STATE LINE, TO NEAR 45 PERCENT
ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR, AND TO ABOVE 60 PERCENT ALONG THE 100TH
MERIDIAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL TRANSITION
INTO A DRYLINE SATURDAY, WHICH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO THE WEST ON THE
CAPROCK AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, AND COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT AND MIXING HEIGHTS SOARING TO THE
ALTITUDE OF WHERE COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLY, AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FUEL LOADING CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INCREASE.
SUNDAY:
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, AS STRONG POST FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 3 HOUR MSLP CHANGES
AROUND 11 TO 15 MB SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 TO 50 MPH, WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. DESPITE THE "COOLER" TEMPERATURES, A DRIER AIRMASS
BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION WITH THE FRONT COMBINED WITH HIGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WIND DRIVEN RFTIS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 5 WHILE MINIMUM RH
VALUES DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH RH
DRIVEN RFTIS NOT AS HIGH BUT STILL ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3. LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE RECENT DAYS, WITH ERCS AROUND 80 TO 90%, COMBINED
WITH THE WINDY AND DRY DAY EXPECTED, THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES WILL
INCREASE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
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