493
FXUS64 KLUB 141104
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- RECORD HIGHS LIKELY SATURDAY ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
- HIGH WINDS FOR SUNDAY, BLOWING DUST, AND CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS.
- CHILLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A RAPID WARMUP WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO
THE 80S AND 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LIGHT ENE WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION AT 10 PM ON THE
HEELS OF A DECAYING BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH FOR SATURDAY
UNDERNEATH DEEPENING WESTERLY FLOW. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT AN
EVEN WARMER AND DRIER LAYER FROM 850–700 MB OUR WAY, FOSTERING
DEEPER MIXING FOR SATURDAY. WITH COMPRESSIONAL WARMING VIA DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH RECORD TERRITORY AT LUBBOCK, WHERE
THE OLD RECORD OF 86 SHOULD BE SMASHED BY HIGHS AROUND 90. OFF THE
CAPROCK MEANWHILE, THE DRIER WEST WINDS ALONG A PSEUDO-DRYLINE ARE
FORECAST TO FALL SHORT OF CHILDRESS AND THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS,
SO HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE CURBED SOMEWHAT GIVEN
MORE BACKED/SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE WARMTH CARRIES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
WHILE SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA COURTESY OF HEFTY
CYCLOGENESIS FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHERN NE. THIS WILL KEEP WSW
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S BEFORE A BIG SHOCK
ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DAWN BREAKS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AHEAD OF A 160-KNOT H3 JET. AS A SURFACE
CYCLONE SPEEDS OFF TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THE AFTERNOON, THE DOOR
WILL BE OPEN FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PLUNGE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF ROBUST PRESSURE RISES REACHING 12–14 MB IN 3 HOURS AND VERY
DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY MIDDAY, EVEN LOWER DEWPOINTS
AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHOULD FACILITATE DEEP MIXING TO AROUND H7
WHERE A 50–60 KNOT JET IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN TX PH
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO THE TX-NM STATE
LINE, WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER DROP OFF QUITE MARKEDLY
(20–30 KNOTS AT H7) BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS SHOULD TEMPER
GUSTS AND EVEN EASE THE BLOWING DUST THREAT; HOWEVER, A SOLID 30–40
KNOTS AT 850 MB WILL REMAIN, WHICH LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS TO HOVER NEAR OR AT HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
INTERESTINGLY, THIS AREA FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NM BORDER
COULD SEE ITS HIGHEST WIND THREAT DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE MORNING
PRECEDING FROPA WHEN A 45–50 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE
PRECARIOUSLY POSITIONED FOR EASY MIXING AROUND 15Z BEFORE THIS JET
DECLINES LATER IN THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE PULLED MUCH
LOWER THAN THE NBM TO BETTER ALIGN WITH COOLER MOS NUMBERS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS MIXING WANES SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN ENHANCED ENOUGH FOR 20–30 MPH NORTH WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
UNTIL A SURFACE HIGH SWEEPS IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND THE COLDEST LOWS IN WEEKS. NBM LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
WERE LEFT INTACT AS THERE IS GROWING SUPPORT FOR THICK HIGH CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK THAT SHOULD THWART EVEN STRONGER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THESE CLOUDS ONLY EXPAND AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY, KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S BEFORE CLEARING
OUT MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF MILDER SW BREEZES.
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
FARTHER EAST. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN STEADY IN PROGGING A ~595-DAM 500-
MB HIGH OVER SOCAL BY TUESDAY THAT SLOWLY NUDGES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING BY LATE IN THE WEEK. DESPITE THIS
WEAKENING TREND TO THE TALL ANTICYCLONE, A CONSIDERABLE DOME OF WARM
AIR WILL SPREAD OUR WAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN THE 80S
GIVE WAY TO LOW-TO-MID 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH
COULD SET A STREAK OF RECORD HIGHS IN LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS.
FORTUNATELY, LEE TROUGHING WILL BE SUPPRESSED UNDER THIS WEAKER NW
FLOW ALOFT, SO WINDS SHOULD STAY ON THE TAME SIDE FOR A CHANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 15 MPH
BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE EXPANDING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY LATE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH RECORD
HEAT AND MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 5 PERCENT, THESE LOW-END BREEZY
WINDS WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH. A RANGELAND
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS VALID FROM 1 PM UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE.
FOLLOWING POOR RH RECOVERIES IN THE 20S SUNDAY MORNING, STRONG NW
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH (LOCALLY HIGHER) SHOULD DEVELOP SOON AFTER
DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE MORNING. NORTH
WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL HOVER BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH AT TIMES. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, AND
THIS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING IN LATER
FORECASTS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19
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