521
FXUS64 KLUB 141820
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
120 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
...NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE
WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE SUNDAY, AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE
RETURN OF MUCH WARMER WEATHER BY MID-WEEK AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
17Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AMPLIFYING, POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH A BROADER
BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW HAVE
GENERATED BANDS OF OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED CIRRUS OFF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH CIRROSTRATUS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A 250 MB JET STREAK APPROACHING
150 KT WAS TRAILING THE BACKSIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
WITH 90 KT ANALYZED AT 500 MB PER THE 12Z SLE RAOB. THE 12Z RAOBS
LAUNCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INDICATED GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT TENDENCIES THAT WERE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE DUE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS THAT WAS PIVOTING OVER THE STATE OF TX, AND
HAS MAINTAINED THE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS, IT WILL BEGIN TO BECOME NEUTRALLY-TILTED,
WITH THE RESPECTIVE JETLETS AT 250 MB AND 500 MB INTENSIFYING TO
NEAR 175 KT AND 100 KT, RESPECTIVELY, UPSTREAM OF ITS BASE. A HIGH
WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE WAS ANALYZED ON WTM DATA NEAR CDS,
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SNK THAT WAS BEGINNING TO
TRANSITION INTO A DRYLINE BASED ON AN INCREASE IN DIFFERENTIAL
MIXING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY. WINDS WERE VEERED
TOWARDS THE WEST ON THE CAPROCK, WHERE PARTICULARLY DEEP MIXING OF
THE PBL HAS LONG BEEN UNDERWAY, WITH RH ALREADY BELOW 10-PERCENT FOR
SOME LOCALES WEST OF I-27/HWY-87. THE 12Z RAOB FROM WFO MAF SAMPLED
A RESIDUAL-LAYER IN THE MID-LEVELS, WITH AN INVERSION NEAR 600 MB A
RESULT OF THE SUBTLE TROUGH THAT PIVOTED OVER W TX AT THE TIME THE
BALLOON WAS LAUNCHED. PBL HEIGHTS WILL SOAR BEYOND 500 MB THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WESTERLY BREEZE, RH REDUCTIONS
WILL FALL AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT (LOCALLY LOWER), ESPECIALLY ON THE
CAPROCK. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SUNSET FOR
THE CAPROCK AND THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. RECORD HIGHS REMAIN
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AT LBB, WITH HIGHS BREACHING 90
DEGREES FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LARGE-SCALE, LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT PLAINS, WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE WESTERLY BREEZE WHILE THE DRYLINE REMAINS STALLED
NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
MILD FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO SLOSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND VEER WINDS
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WHILE NEARING ADVISORY-LEVEL. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS PRIOR TO 18Z SUNDAY,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG, STEEPLY SLOPED COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO BLAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE LATE-MORNING HOURS. AN INTENSE
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL BE GENERATED BY THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
CYCLONE ROTATING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THE CYCLONE NEARING 988 MB SUNDAY MORNING AS
IT ROTATES INTO THE CORN BELT. THIS, COMBINED WITH GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR IN THE TX PH, WILL RESULT
IN POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 12 MB/3 HR, WITH
PRESSURE TENDENCIES SLOW TO NEUTRALIZE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY DUE
TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE LARGE-SCALE, ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH.
WINDS WERE RAISED TO ALIGN WITH THE NBM 95TH PERCENTILE, WITH THE
WIND GUST FACTOR RERAISED TO 55 KT (65 MPH). SUSTAINED, NORTHERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 35-45 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH, ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY, ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE
THE MARGINAL COMPONENT OF RH VIA THE STRONG CAA, A CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS. HIGHS ARE NOW FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH TO THE UPPER
60S IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS, WITH HIGHS PEAKING
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST MAY LEAD
TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 7 AM
TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH A POLAR SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO SETTLE
INTO W TX DURING THIS TIME. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST,
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHILE
REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 20S FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
DENVER CITY TO MEMPHIS. DUE TO THE POST-FRONTAL HIGH BECOMING
CENTERED IN W TX, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE DAWN
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
BEYOND AS AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE FORMS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VERY
WARM TO EVEN HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH POPS REMAINING NIL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRASTICALLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY 15Z SUNDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS, THOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IF VIS WILL DROP BELOW VFR. FOR NOW VIS WILL BE KEPT
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN THE ROLLING PLAINS NEAR CHILDRESS, WITH
A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE 100TH MERIDIAN. WINDS WERE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW, BUT
PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST OTHERWISE. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AND DESPITE THE WESTERLY BREEZE REMAINING
LIGHT, AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE CAPROCK AND THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS RH MINIMA CRATERS TO NEAR 5 PERCENT. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL 8 PM CDT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM. RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR DUE
TO THE WESTERLY BREEZE, OR BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL THEN
TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE AS A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL THEN BLAST THROUGH W TX PRIOR TO NOONTIME, WITH VERY STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE NORTH POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35-45
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST IS ALSO
EXPECTED. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH COOLER SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL KEEP RH REDUCTIONS IN CHECK, THE HIGH WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF W TX. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY WHILE DIMINISHING QUICKLY
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
FORECAST BY MONDAY MORNING AS A POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ROTATES INTO W TX, WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51
FIRE WEATHER...09
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