825
FXUS64 KLUB 150345
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1045 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS WITH BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY.
- CHILLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY UNUSUAL HEAT LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A VERY MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WAS UNDERWAY WITH 10 PM TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S WELL IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SET TO SHAKE THINGS UP FOR SUNDAY. INFRARED
SATELLITE SHOWED THIS FRONT SPEEDING SOUTH THROUGH THE WYOMING
FRONT RANGE LATE THIS EVENING WHICH SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FROPA LOCALLY - SOMETHING WHICH HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO.
OUR LATEST FORECAST NOW HAS THIS FRONT REACHING OUR PANHANDLE
COUNTIES AROUND 9-10 AM, AND EXITING OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER AT
SOME POINT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SLOWER FROPA WILL LIKELY
DELAY THE ONSET OF HIGH WINDS BEYOND OUR 7 AM HIGH WIND WARNING,
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGING THE VALID TIMES. A MORE
UNSETTLING TREND FROM THE 00Z MODELS IS FOR EVEN WEAKER 850-700 MB
WINDS IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS WHERE PRIMARILY 30-35 KNOTS IS PROGGED AT 850 MB. CONTRAST
THIS WITH AREAS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE TO THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE 40-45 KNOTS IS MORE PREVALENT IN
THE MIXING LAYER AND FIRMLY SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH WINDS. EVEN IF
SUSTAINED WINDS CAN'T MUSTER THEIR FULL POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS, WE'LL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTACT FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE AREA AS GUSTS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FROPA COULD REACH 58+
MPH THANKS TO HEFTY PRESSURE RISES. SIMILAR TO THE WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST WE SAW LAST WEDNESDAY FROM 30-40 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, THE STAGE IS PRIMED FOR A SIMILAR DUST EVENT,
HENCE THE RECENTLY-ISSUED BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. DUE TO THE
SLOWER FRONT, HIGH TEMPS NEEDED TO BE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PRE-FRONTAL
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WITH 20-30 MPH WNW WINDS LOOKS VERY
EFFICIENT IN WARMING OUR ALREADY MILD TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE
DAY.
WINDS DIAL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE FINALLY LAYING DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CHILLY SURFACE RIDGING ENTERS THE REGION. ALOFT,
THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE SHOVED TO OUR EAST ALLOWING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF A 120-140 KNOT H3 JET TO NOSE INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE KEEN TO SHOW AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET CLOSER TO DAYBREAK,
SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH THE TEENS AND 20S BEFORE THESE
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS DAMPEN MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AFTER HIGH CLOUDS DEPART MONDAY NIGHT, MILDER SOUTHWEST BREEZES
RETURN UNDER AMPLE HEIGHT RISES IN NW FLOW. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UNUSUALLY WARM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING SOCAL WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OCCUPIES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL WOBBLE SLOWLY EAST EACH DAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK AND LEAVING US UNDER AN ELONGATED
RIDGE AXIS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS WEAKENING THEME, A
SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF HEAT WILL STILL ADVECT OUR WAY BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND PEAKING SOMETIME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH UPPER 90S FOR
PARTS OF WEST TX. THANKFULLY, OUR TYPICAL MARCH WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SIT OUT THIS HEAT THEREBY KEEPING FIRE CONCERNS LOW OR AT MOST
ELEVATED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR UNTIL LATE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN WIDESPREAD BLDU AND HIGH WINDS
WILL CAUSE VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER. LLWS IS MORE LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER A 45-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET
BEFORE WANING AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. INITIALLY BREEZY NW
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO STRONG N WINDS WITH FROPA FROM
14-16Z. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES
ALONG WITH BLDU.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
AFTER POOR RH RECOVERIES SUNDAY MORNING, FUELS WILL BECOME VERY
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD ON SUNDAY AS STRONG NW AND N WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE LOWEST MINIMUM RHS AROUND
12 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 35-45 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 65 MPH COULD CAUSE FIRE STARTS FROM DOWNED LINES. AT
THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM DIMMITT TO LUBBOCK TO POST. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE WINDS DECLINE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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