675
FXUS64 KLUB 151825
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
125 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS WITH BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY.
- CHILLY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY UNUSUAL HEAT LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE FA AS OF 1 PM AND HAS LEFT
EVIDENCE OF ITS PASSAGE IN THE FORM OF STRONG WINDS. MAX WIND
GUSTS AS OF 1 PM VARY, WITH OUR NORTHERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK, RECEIVING THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS, AVERAGING AROUND
60. THE MEMPHIS MESONET HAS REPORTED THE HIGHEST GUST SO FAR IN
THE FA AT 69 MPH. ON THE CAPROCK, WIND GUSTS HAVE AVERAGED IN THE
MID 40 TO MID 50 MPH RANGE WITH ALL BUT SILVERTON, TULIA, AND
MULESHOE BEING BELOW 58 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WITHIN HIGH WIND CRITERIA WITH MOST MESONETS REPORTING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH. WE HAVE LIKELY HIT A PLATEAU WITH WIND
SPEEDS AND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE WINDS DRASTICALLY DECREASE BY SUNSET AND DROP TO 15 MPH
OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT. DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASING BEHIND
THE FRONT TO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE, THE THREAT FOR RAPIDLY
SPREADING WILDFIRES REMAINS HIGH DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. THIS IS
EVIDENT WITH ONGOING FIRES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A SURFACE
HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 20S WHILE TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK WILL DROP TO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE, LOW TO MID 50S, AS THE WIND
SHIFT WILL NOT FULLY OCCUR UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MOSTLY QUIET AND WARM WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK, INCREASING THICKNESSES AS A RESULT. HIGHS
WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY WHILE HIGHS IN THE 90S
WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE BY THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER HIGH, WE MAY SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS BY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ON THE
CAPROCK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL THANKS
TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
HIGH WINDS AND BLDU WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW THROUGH
SUNSET. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH THROUGH THEN, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT COMMON AT ALL TERMINALS. SIGNIFICANT CROSS WINDS ON
RWY 8/26 AT KLBB ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. VSBYS FROM
BLDU WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AT KLBB AND KPVW, WITH MVFR
VSBYS EXPECTED AT KCDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WHILE VEERING
NORTHEASTWARD, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. VFR WILL RETURN AT ALL TERMINALS FOLLOWING THE END
OF THE HIGH WINDS THIS EVENING, WITH AN INCREASING VFR CLOUD DECK.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...09
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