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FXUS64 KLUB 160430
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- MUCH COOLER AND QUIETER MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
- CONSIDERABLY WARMER AFTER TUESDAY, INCLUDING RECORD HIGH
POTENTIAL BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
CHILLY SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT ON MUCH LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH TO OUR EAST, INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SCATTERING OF THICKER CIRRIFORM CLOUDS IN
THE EXIT REGION OF A 170-KNOT H3 JET NOSING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AS THIS JET TRANSLATES INTO OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK, A
WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL ROTATE TOWARD THE REGION
WHILE BRINGING SUFFICIENT PACIFIC MOISTURE FOR AMPLE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. AFTER CHILLY LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, THE THICKER CLOUD
CANOPY ON MONDAY WILL LOCK IN THE CHILL THEREBY CAPPING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. CLEAR SKIES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT ON THE HEELS OF
THIS LESSER TROUGH; HOWEVER, LOW TEMPERATURES WON’T BE AS NIPPY AS
WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COOL SURFACE HIGH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
AFTER SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THANKS TO LEE TROUGHING
AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON, THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM (AT TIMES HOT) AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXPANDS EASTWARD. AN ASSOCIATED
DOME OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES, WITH 700 MB VALUES RISING TO 10-
13°C BY LATE WEEK, SETS THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF RECORD HIGHS
BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOPPING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WHICH MAY THROW MANY DAILY RECORD HIGHS OUT THE DOOR. THESE
RECORDS ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION AT THE END OF THIS AFD.
THE UPPER HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE GRADUALLY DECAY BY SUNDAY AS
A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL FLOW ERASES THE PREVIOUSLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN DOMINATING THE LOWER 48.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
RECORD HIGHS ARE AT RISK LATER THIS WEEK. THE LATEST FORECAST
HIGHS AND RECORDS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
LUBBOCK CHILDRESS
FCST (RECORD) FCST (RECORD)
WED, 3/18: 86 (88) 87 (91)
THU, 3/19: 92 (89) 94 (92)
FRI, 3/20: 96 (93) 97 (100)
SAT, 3/21: 97 (93) 99 (98)
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19
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