781
FXUS64 KLUB 172322
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK,
WITH RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY ON THURSDAY,
FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME LOW 100S LIKELY OFF THE CAPROCK
ON SATURDAY.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITS EASTWARD OVER KS/OK. DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY, WHICH WILL IN TURN RESULT IN PERSISTENT
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EXPANSIVE UPPER
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CA SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD. TODAY
WILL THEREFORE MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MULTI-DAY WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RECOVERING INTO THE 70S, WITH 80S
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL WANE QUICKLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION EXPECTED TO BE PLEASANTLY LIGHT
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION, CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO HIGH THAT TONIGHT WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF ABOVE-FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE A HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE DESERT SW
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 595DAM, WITH IS ABOUT THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UNUSUALLY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL RESULT, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
REGION EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED
TO CENTER CLOSEST TO OUR AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT
WITH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
LOW 100S OFF THE CAPROCK. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES (ABOUT 25 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), NEW RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY AT BOTH LUBBOCK
AND CHILDRESS ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO
REMAIN PLEASANTLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD GIVEN A WEAK MIDLEVEL
WIND FIELD AND DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THEREFORE REMAINING LOW DESPITE THE HEAT.
THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY DEAMPLIFY AND RETREAT SOUTHWARD BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY, WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION SOMETIME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A RELATIVELY MODEST COOLDOWN FOR MONDAY, BUT OVERALL THE
PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR WITH BREEZY SSW WINDS TAPERING BY SUNSET, THEN TURNING NNE BY
LATE MORNING AND REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93
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