775
FXUS64 KLUB 181621
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1121 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AFTER TUESDAY'S BREEZY WINDS, FORECAST CHALLENGES DWINDLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH SAGS SOUTH DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF
A LIGHT NNE WIND SHIFT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TREND MORE
ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY AS AMPLE HEIGHT RISES (+80 METERS IN 24
HOURS) HERALD THE APPROACH OF CONSIDERABLY HOTTER AIR LATER THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS, HIGH TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE AS
850-700 MB TEMPS UNDERGO CONTINUED WARMING. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S
LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUCH DRY PROMOTING A HEALTHY DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A TOASTY END TO SPRING BREAK REMAINS IN THE CARDS AS AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WOBBLES FROM SOUTHERN CA ON
THURSDAY TO SOUTHERN AZ FOR FRIDAY BEFORE FLATTENING THIS WEEKEND AS
ZONAL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE CONUS. HEIGHTS CONTINUE CLIMBING ON
THURSDAY BEFORE PLATEAUING ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS ITS
SLOW DECAY; HOWEVER, 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP RISING,
WITH 700 MB TEMPS REACHING A SWELTERING PEAK OF 14-15°C NEAR THE
TX/NM BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PENDING THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY, SATURDAY SHOULD BE OUR PEAK FOR HEAT AND THE FINAL DAY
OF RECORD HIGHS. INTERESTINGLY, LUBBOCK'S FORECAST HIGH OF 97 ON
SATURDAY WOULD BE ITS HOTTEST MARCH TEMPERATURE EVER. ONE CONCERN
IS THAT IF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT SLOWS ANY FURTHER, OUR AREA COULD
FALL IN THE DREADED PRE-FRONTAL/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ZONE ON
SUNDAY RESULTING IN MORE RECORD HEAT. THIS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
IS SUPPORTED BY MAXT ENSEMBLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS UP TO 12 IN THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IS BETTER IN HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL
(70S) BY MONDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW, AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...09
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