090
FXUS64 KLUB 181647
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- A HISTORICALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FOR MID-MARCH CENTERED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING UNUSUALLY HOT, RECORD-BREAKING,
TEMPERATURES TO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT IT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT THIS
AFTERNOON LEAVING VERY MODEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD, WITH NO LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO FALL TO
NEAR FREEZING, UNLIKE THE PAST FEW MORNINGS.
AS THE UPPER-RDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST, INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEW RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND
CHILDRESS (CURRENTLY 89 AND 92 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY, BOTH SET IN
2017).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AND
WOBBLE E-SE. THUS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME UNDER INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-HIGH, RESULTING
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. WE EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME 100 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY. RECORD HIGHS
ARE LIKELY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS BOTH DAYS, AND LUBBOCK WILL
LIKELY EQUAL OR EXCEED OUR ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD-HIGH TEMPERATURE
OF 95 DEGREES (REACHED IN 1946 AND 1989). THE ONE PIECE OF GOOD
NEWS DURING THE THU TO SAT PERIOD IS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT (ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES MAY
DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON) WHICH WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
FIRE SPREAD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS, SOME FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LOWERS IN SOME
OF THE FORECAST DETAILS STARTING SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SENT
SOUTH BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY,
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT'S PASSAGE...AND
ALSO BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS GUSTY N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD FOR THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THUS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. THIS IS STILL
FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT NO PARTICULAR SCENARIO IS FAVORED YET, AND
THE CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE DEPICTS SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL
HOT, TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WE DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THE WEAKENING/SUPPRESSION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY,
PERHAPS BACK TO NEAR-AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH (HIGHS IN THE 70S).
BEYOND MONDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TREND WARMER AGAIN AS
UPPER-RIDGING REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO
DISCERNIBLE SIGNAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN, MUCH LESS
PRECIPITATION, IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW, AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09
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