644
FXUS64 KLUB 191055
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
555 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE UPPER RIDGING
(BY MARCH STANDARDS) CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS NV AS OF LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF THE
ONGOING WARMING TREND ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER A MILD OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY SOAR INTO THE
90S ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AIDED BY MODEST
DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WESTERLIES COURTESY OF WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE AND 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 25-28C RANGE. THE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH OF 89 AT LUBBOCK (2017) AND 92 AT CHILDRESS
(2017) ARE BOTH LIKELY TO FALL ON THURSDAY. LUCKILY, SURFACE FLOW
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED TROUGH, WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THEREFORE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO CENTER OVER THE AZ/NM STATE
LINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AREA-WIDE GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. SATURDAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE EVEN HOTTER WITH
HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK IN THE UPPER 90S WITH SOME LOW 100S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WINDS ON SATURDAY ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER (PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 MPH
OVER THE SW TX PANHANDLE) AS MODELS INDICATE A SUB-1000MB SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NE NM. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT, AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND RETREAT SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL
IN TURN ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND INTO OUR REGION SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. EXACTLY WHEN THE
FRONT ARRIVES IS UNCERTAIN WHICH NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, BUT FOR NOW A SLOWER EVOLUTION APPEARS
FAVORED WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 90S ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY,
BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TUESDAY AND
BEYOND AS THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS TO OUR WEST WITH NO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...19
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