186
FXUS64 KLUB 211029
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
529 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, BUT UNSEASONABLY HOT
WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY,
EXCEPTIONALLY HOT WEATHER BY MARCH STANDARDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE DESERT SW WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUITE MILD YET
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER MOST OF THE REGION, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANOTHER HOT DAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK A
COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN OBSERVED ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S OVER MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND LOW 100S LIKELY EAST OF
THE ESCARPMENT. THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE AT LUBBOCK (93 SET
IN 1997) AND AT CHILDRESS (98 SET IN 1904/1907) ARE BOTH LIKELY TO
BE BROKEN. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MODEST BY WEST TX STANDARDS, BUT GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AND
DRY AIRMASS, THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
BY SUNDAY, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND
FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE THIS EVOLUTION, SUNDAY WILL
STILL BE QUITE HOT ACROSS WEST TX WITH H5 HEIGHTS STILL PROGGED TO
BE IN THE 585DAM RANGE RESULTING IN FORECAST HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 90S
TO LOW 100S. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH KS, OK, AND THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY, AND IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN ON SATURDAY,
INITIALLY OUT OF THE WEST AS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION, THEN INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING MOST OF
THE DAY, BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS
AND WHAT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A VERY SLOW INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS THEREFORE BEEN
ISSUED AREA-WIDE FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
A WELCOME COOLDOWN WILL ARRIVE MONDAY WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO PEAK IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE BRIEF AS RECORD-CHALLENGING HEAT WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BY LATE NEXT WEEK, MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES A PATTERN CHANGE MAY FINALLY TAKE PLACE WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO OUR MARCH HEAT WAVE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
STILL NO MEANINGFUL SIGNALS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END
OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
CONTINUED VFR AND HOT. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MINIMUM RH VALUES NEAR 5 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE REGION. IN
ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE CAPROCK AND
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW TX PANHANDLE. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
WIND MAGNITUDE OFF THE CAPROCK, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH MORE LIKELY. STILL, THE VERY LOW RH ON ITS OWN WILL RESULT IN
RFTI VALUES AROUND 1 AREA-WIDE, WITH POCKETS OF RFTI VALUES UP TO
4 POSSIBLE WHERE WINDS APPROACH OR EXCEED 15 MPH. GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY DRY FUEL STATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS IS
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AGAIN
FALLING NEAR 5 PERCENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>044.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...93
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