408
FXUS64 KLUB 212338
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, BUT UNSEASONABLY HOT
WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
IT'S THE SAME TUNE, DIFFERENT DAY. THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER HIGH HAS MOVED JUST SLIGHTLY EAST FROM
IT'S PREVIOUS POSITION ON FRIDAY. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MID/UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK
AND AROUND 100 ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS
SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP PER SURFACE OBS. DESPITE THIS, WE SHOULD
ONLY SEE WINDS TOP OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELAXED. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. DURING THIS SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS PROGGED TO REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY
NOON SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. DESPITE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, STRONGER WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER AS
FUELS WILL ALREADY BE EXTREMELY DRY AND WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL LIKELY REACH INTO THE
MID/UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND AROUND 100 ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
MONDAY WILL BE AN AVERAGE OF 20-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY THANKS
TO THE COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER,
AS THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY JUST AS
SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH MID-WEEK AND EVENTUALLY SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WHILE THIS WILL WARM HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S, WE SHOULD AVOID HIGHS
NEAR 100 AS THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT UPPER HIGH,
H588 VS H594. EVEN THIS WARM UP SHOULD ONLY LAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH NO PRECIP.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH LLWS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY FROM ABOUT MIDDAY
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT LIKELY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING AT
NOON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT OR HIGHER
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND
AS ERCS REMAIN IN THE 95+ PERCENTILE. THE SUNDAY FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE TIME BEING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...30
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