048
FXUS64 KLUB 221651
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND RETURN NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON THE WAY SUNDAY WITH STRENGTHENING BREEZES
BEHIND AN AFTERNOON COLD FRONT.
- RECORD-CHALLENGING HEAT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE ONGOING DEAMPLIFICATION AND
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PASSES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY REACH WEST TX BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEFORE THEN, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST BREEZES RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S
ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY HOT AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AS WE REMAIN BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE SUNDAY ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE
90S TO LOW 100S BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH, THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT (LIKELY AROUND NOON OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE) RESULTS IN A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
LIKELY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE, WITH MUCH WARMER HIGHS FARTHER
SOUTH. ALSO OF NOTE, POST-FRONTAL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND
EXTREMELY DRY FUEL STATES WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER TO THE REGION. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE HEAT AS HIGHS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 70S AS LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
CONTINUES BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF
THOUGH, AS MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE DESERT SW ON TUESDAY AND SHIFTING EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, RECORD-
CHALLENGING OR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL RETURN TO WEST TX DURING
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S. IN CONTRAST TO THIS PAST WEEK, PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGHING
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING MOST OF THE WEEK, AND ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL APPEARS DRY
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WIND
SHIFT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE
AROUND NOON, THEN GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED POST-FRONTAL NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH RH RISING ONLY VERY SLOWLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RFTI VALUES FROM 5 TO 7, AND A
RED FLAG WARNING IS THEREFORE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FROM 9 AM UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51
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