308
FXUS64 KLUB 231104
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- COOLER TO START THE WORK WEEK THANKS TO SUNDAY'S LATE EVENING
FROPA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY.
- WETTER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING DEPICTS APPROACHING HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FROPA EARLIER THIS EVENING REMAINS FIXATED
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS ANALYZED VIA WTM STATIONS ACROSS THE
REGIONS. AS A RESULT, CONDITIONS WILL TREND COOLER WHILE CONTINUING
TO REMAIN QUIET AS THE WEAK POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE FA ALONG THE
WESTWARD CUSP OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THUS INFLUENCING AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 MPH. GIVEN THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALONG
WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE, HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE WHILE HIGH CLOUDS LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AFTER A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK , LEADING TO THE RETURN OF THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS DEPICT THE 590 DAM UPPER HIGH WILL BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE BIG COUNTRY BY MID-WEEK, WITH NBM HIGHS SUGGESTING
SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WHILE THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN CONSISTENT
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE H7 TO H8 LEVELS, AIDING IN WAA
INTO THE PANHANDLE, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AREA-WIDE DOES NOT SEEM FAR
OUT OF REACH. IN FACT, WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST NBM TEMPERATURES UPWARD
IN THE COMING DAYS IF THE WARMER TREND CONTINUES. UNFORTUNATELY,
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED (LIKELY HIGH BASED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM) DEVELOPING AS PERTURBATIONS RIDING DOWN THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TRIES TO INTERACT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION TRAPPED
UNDER THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS MORE UNLIKELY THEN LIKELY WITH
THE LACK THERE OF MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THE HOT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WORK-WEEK, ENSEMBLES THEN HINT
AT A POTENTIAL COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WE MAY EVEN
SEE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN A BIT MURKY TO DIVE INTO SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES BECOME UNSEASONABLY HOT WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP
INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
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