121
FXUS64 KLUB 231747
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1247 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
- RECORD BREAKING HEAT AND CRITICAL FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY.
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A QUIET AND MILD MONDAY IS ON PAR FOR TODAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING AS A LEE SIDE LOW SHIFTS TO THE CO/NM BORDER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF TODAY. QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
SADLY, THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST LONG. TUESDAY WILL BE
THE START TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY SHIFTING FLOW
ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES AND MODERATE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. KLBB HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BEAT THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 88 DEGREES SET IN 1929 WITH A
FORECAST HIGH OF 91 DEGREES. KCDS WILL BE JUST A COUPLE DEGREES SHY
OF BEATING THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET IN 1929 WITH A FORECAST
HIGH OF 88 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE A DRYLINE PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH
THE CWA. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT FOLLOWING THE DRYLINE. THE
EXPECTED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING LOCALIZED ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE CAPROCK FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY. THEREFORE, A RANGELAND FIRE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
NO CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
TRANSLATING EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS EVERY AFTERNOON WILL PROLONG THE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGITS THURSDAY. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE
PROLONGED HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS. LUCKILY, THE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT DOES NOT CONTINUE AND WE WILL SEE A COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES COMPARED TO
WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING MID-WEEK. ANOTHER WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS.
SADLY, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK WITH A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH, THIS IS STILL A WEEK
OUT AND CAN EXPECT CHANGES IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51
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