758
FXUS64 KLUB 241700
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH RECORD
BREAKING HEAT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING LATE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
AFTER A MUCH COOLER START TO THE WORK WEEK, TUESDAY WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS H5 RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS AS AN UPPER HIGH CENTERS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO AN INCREASE
IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
REGIONS. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN THE
ROCKIES. MODELS PUSH THIS SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWARD, DIGGING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON,
THUS LEADING TO (ALTHOUGH WEAK) TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NONETHELESS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
MPH, WITH A FEW TYPICAL WEST TEXAS BREEZES AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AIDING IN WAA INTO THE
REGION, COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO A WARM
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 25C TO 28C SUGGESTING HIGHS
BACK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER COMES THE RETURN OF ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FA AS WARM SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AID IN DRYING CONDITIONS, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RANGELAND
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM CDT THROUGH 8 PM CDT
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ~590 DAM
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, PARKING OVER THE BIG COUNTRY BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.AS
A RESULT, DAILY INCREASES IN THICKNESS VALUES COMBINED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS. PERSISTENT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE H7 AND H8 LEVELS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
WAA, WHILE SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY THE UPPER HIGH COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS FURTHER REINFORCE THE WARMING TREND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BRING MAXTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WHILE THURSDAY LOOKS
TO BRING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY THE
YEAR AREA-WIDE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE ORDER
OF 38C TO 32C COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A DEEPENING
LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
AREA WIDE. LIKELY SMASHING RECORDS AT BOTH KLBB (92 DEGREES IN 2020)
AND KCDS (96 DEGREES IN 2020) WITH HIGHS FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AT BOTH SITES. UNFORTUNATELY, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN ESSENTIALLY NIL, THOUGH SOME GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A ROGUE RIDGE-RIDING STORM SKIRTING DOWN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY WHERE MEAGER MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE. ALTHOUGH, THIS SEEMS MORE UNLIKELY THAN NOT AND WILL HOLD ON
TO A DRY FORECAST WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES BECOME UNSEASONABLY HOT WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP
INTO TEENS EACH AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ALONG WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL COOL DOWN
FRIDAY AS A FROPA SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CONUS. AS OF NOW, THIS FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN
DRY AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY POST
FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE. IN FACT, MOS GUIDANCE
IS ALREADY HINTING AT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT,
THEREFORE NBM WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS IF THIS CONTINUES TO HOLD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND FORECAST PERIOD, POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN AS
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE A DISTURBANCE RIPPLES ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WE MAY EVEN
SEE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN A BIT MURKY TO DIVE INTO SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page