665
FXUS64 KLUB 241823
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
123 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- A WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH RECORD BREAKING
HEAT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING LATE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST. REMNANTS OF
SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT ARE NOW GONE. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS, ALONG WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES FROM THE
BUILDING UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EASTWARD THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERHEAD THICKNESSES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EVEN WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE
MID 90S AREA WIDE. A SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL IN TURN CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE CAPROCK WITH ANOTHER RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT BEING NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL REACH ITS PEAK BY THURSDAY AS IT IS CENTER
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, WARMING THURSDAY'S AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
90S/NEAR 100. A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND, COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS,
WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FA
WARRANTING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WILL COOL HIGHS BY 30-
35 DEGREES OVER THURSDAY'S HIGHS, IT WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS AS
PRESSURE RISES OF 7-8 MB/3 HOURS ARE PROGGED. CURRENTLY THE NBM HAS
SOLD WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FORECASTED FOR FRIDAY. MEX GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SHOWS NEAR WARNING LEVEL WINDS AND IS LIKELY MORE IN LINE
GIVEN THE PROGGED PRESSURE RISES. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND
PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
REGARDLESS, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY WIND
ALONE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON VEERING WINDS TO THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOWING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...51
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