015
FXUS64 KLUB 011113
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING.
- ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE
SOCAL COAST AS OF LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND BE EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS EVOLUTION WILL INFLUENCE QUITE A STRONG
SURFACE RESPONSE, WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG
SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE
MORNING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIALLY THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE AND TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
MODIFIED PACIFIC FRONT PASSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH OR EXCEED 30 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE, AND A
WIND ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT,
AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE ARE PROGGED TO BE NEARLY
SATURATED. HOWEVER, THE PACIFIC FRONT ITSELF WILL RESULT IN A
NOTABLE DRYING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, WITH T/TD SPREADS OF 20-30C
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CAPROCK. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL TAKE THE FORM OF
ELEVATED FAST-MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. AS A
RESULT, MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-27 CURRENTLY LOOK LIKELY TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL. FARTHER EAST, DEEPER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WHICH COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT COURTESY OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
CAPROCK. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
AFTER ABOUT 4 PM, THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE,
WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE
BEFORE STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
FARTHER WEST ON THE CAPROCK IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THINGS WILL FINALLY
SETTLE DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL PRECIPITATION EXITING TO OUR EAST
AND WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING.
FINALLY, WE DO STILL EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS STRENGTHEN
AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DRIES. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN, HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW
20 PERCENT WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW
TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THIS AND MIND AND THE
VERY DRY FUEL STATES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST
AREAS WEST OF I-27 FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
OUR LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH A QUIET THURSDAY. THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
HAVE CONTINUED EASTWARD LEAVING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE TO
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CO.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT. 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER AN UPPER PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL
RETURN FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
IT WILL FINALLY FEEL LIKE SPRING THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25
KNOTS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES. PATCHY BLOWING DUST COULD IMPACT KPVW AND KLBB,
HOWEVER EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN VFR CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING NEAR KCDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE GRADUALLY AFTER
SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG AND JUST
INSIDE THE NM/TX BORDER. ALTHOUGH STILL BREEZY, WINDS OFF THE
CAPROCK WILL NOT BE AS STRONG WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
RH VALUES WILL REACH AS LOW 17 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON, CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE IT VERY LIKELY FOR FIRE TO
SPARK AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE CAPROCK FROM 12 PM CDT UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR BRISCOE, FLOYD, CROSBY, AND GARZA
COUNTIES WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RH VALUES AROUND 20-25
PERCENT. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
COUNTIES FROM 12 PM CDT UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REACH AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10
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