895
FXUS64 KLUB 011845
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
145 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- WINDY TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK. SOME STORMS OFF THE
CAPROCK COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING.
- ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES. CLOUD COVER IS HELPING TO LIMIT MIXING WITH MOST WIND
COMING FROM VIRGA AND THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN/VIRGA SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE FA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
EVENTUALLY COVER THE FA. A DRYLINE, STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA IN
WESTERN NEW MEXICO, WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD. SOME CONVECTION, SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE, IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. MOST INSTABILITY IS CONFINED ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES TO
WELL EAST OF THE FA WHERE MOST CONVECTION/SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE OF 1500+ SHOULD ALLOW FOR
STORMS TO EASILY STRENGTHEN AND BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 70 MPH BEING POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF
THE FA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FA AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MORE RELAXED THAN IT IS TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10-15 MPH. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THE
WARM SIDE, LOW TO UPPER 80S, AND CONDITIONS DRY WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MOVE INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW THE TREND OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS UPPER FLOW WILL BE
PUSHING AGAINST THE FRONT WITH A FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DELAY COOLER
TEMPERATURES UNTIL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY BEING 15-20
DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY'S HIGHS. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HELP TEMPS STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE KCDS TERMINAL AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN BUT STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
WILL BRING LLWS TO ALL TAF SITES. THERE IS ALSO A NON-ZERO CHANCE
OF LOW CIGS AT KCDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT,
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION COULD ENHANCE ALREADY GUSTY WINDS AND PROVIDE SPORADIC
WIND DIRECTION. SOME THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY, AVERAGING 10-15 MPH OUT OF THE WEST, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP
TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>023-
027>029-033>035-039>041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021-022-027-028-
033-034-039-040.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...01
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