291
FXUS64 KLUB 022316
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
TWO DISTINCT PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE FIRST WILL
OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS WEATHER WILL STEM
FROM A CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AN UPPER LOW WILL EMERGE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING AND
LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. LIFT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A SECONDARY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF
60-70KT POSITIONED OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT TO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ADVECTING OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DRYLINE
WILL ALSO BE SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BUT WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE, RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE DRY SIDE
OF THE DRYLINE. MOST ROBUST CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THIS SURFACE FEATURE. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING, LOW
LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER IOWA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO A BROAD WARM SECTOR OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. LOW LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR WILL BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S OFF THE
CAPROCK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM WILL LEAD TO
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY VALUES SOMEWHERE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG.
HOWEVER, THESE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
CAPPED FROM PARCELS ORIGINATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ELEVATED
SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE THE FAVORED MODE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. THEREFORE, AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. CONVECTION WOULD ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND LITTLE CURVATURE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE SECOND PERIOD OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT FAVORING AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING. CLOSE TO THE FRONT, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW WHICH MAY LEAD TO TRAINING CONVECTION.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ABNORMALLY HIGH WITH FORECASTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THE FAST
MOTION OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW STORMS TO CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE OF BRINGING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED S AND
E OF A KCDS TO KLBB LINE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LUNCHTIME ON FRIDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CHILDRESS HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILST KLBB AND KPVW ARE MORE CONDITIONAL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...26
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