751
FXUS64 KLUB 031109
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE OFF THE CAPROCK, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MILDER WEATHER NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE THIS NIGHT AHEAD OF A KISSING UPPER
JET OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS JET FEATURE WILL TRANSITION INTO A
BROAD CYCLONIC JET STRUCTURE OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS FROM WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WEAK LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS BACKED OUR WINDS SOUTH WHICH
IS PULLING RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE MORNING WEARS ON, A
DRYLINE SHOULD EVOLVE FROM ABOUT BROWNFIELD HIGHWAY TO SILVERTON
BEFORE MIXING PARTIALLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACCOMPANYING
THIS RICHER MOISTURE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT SHOULD PROVE
THICKEST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS RESULTING IN COOLER HIGHS
AROUND 80 COMPARED TO ELSEWHERE. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD ALSO
YIELD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS STORMS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON PENDING A LAYER OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
RESIDING ATOP THE STRATUS LAYER. HOWEVER, LIFT IS RATHER SUBTLE AND
GIVEN EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS ON THE CAPROCK AND THICK STRATUS FARTHER
EAST, THE CHANCES FOR SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK A SIZABLE
CAP ARE NOT GREAT. ANY POCKETS OF CLEARING EAST OF THE DRYLINE COULD
EASILY CHANGE THIS SCENARIO, BUT FOR NOW NBM'S GENEROUS DAYTIME POPS
WERE SCALED LOWER. THIS STORY CHANGES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTH AND FORCES PARCELS TO FINALLY CONVECT, PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT. BARRING THE AFTERNOON CAPPING INVERSION BEING OVERCOME,
SEVERE PROSPECTS LOOK GREATEST OVERNIGHT WHEN MUCAPES OF 1500 J/KG
ARE PUT TO WORK. LARGE HAIL, HIGH WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL ON
THE TABLE ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE RICH PWATS HOLD STEADY
AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND
UNDERCUTTING OF STORMS WITH TIME MAY TEND TO CURB A BROADER FLOODING
THREAT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, COOL AND STABLE
NORTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL BEFORE VEERING SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY UNDER A
WEAKER AND LARGELY WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS QUIET THEME CARRIES
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
MIDWEEK. A WEAK RIPPLE IN WESTERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY MAY GARNER SOME
SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT THIS SIGNAL IS POOR OVERALL. BY LATE WEEK THE
PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH BROAD TROUGHING OCCUPYING THE WESTERN CONUS
RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF STORMS WITH
AN ACTIVE DRYLINE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS STEADILY INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHRA WITH A FEW TS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AT KCDS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION AT KLBB AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ERRATIC WINDS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, A
COLD FRONT WILL DESCEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET,
BRINGING A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH WILL LAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRA TO ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING RICHER MOISTURE TO ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. THE DRIEST AND BREEZIEST W-SW WINDS
WILL TARGET THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 15-20
MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH. COMBINED WITH RHS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
10 PERCENT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY HERE WITH POTENTIAL ALSO
EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE FAR
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AT 15-25 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30
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