646
FXUS64 KLUB 032320
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS OFF THE CAPROCK.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH MILDER WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CURRENTLY EMERGING ONTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GENERALLY BE TOO FAR
NORTH TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT TO WEST TEXAS. A WEAK EXTENTION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. MOST LIFT WILL COME FROM MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES,
FIRST FROM A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SURGED BACK NORTHWARD TODAY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-60S. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
YIELD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FOR
AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY COOL AND MAY LIKELY KEEP ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE
DRYLINE IS THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY PRODUCING POTENTIALLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO CURVATURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF FORECAST HODOGRAPHS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG A QUICKLY MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS. A QUASI LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO AREAS AS FAR WEST AS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PEAKING OVER ONE
INCH OR NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THE AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT UPSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP SEVERE CHANCES LOW. THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
TO CHANGE LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A POTENTIALLY
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH WOULD ACT TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA WITH AN ACTIVE DRYLINE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS TONIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF PVW-CDS
WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH AROUND SUNSET AHEAD OF GUSTY NNE WINDS AND A
WINDOW FOR TS AT ALL TERMINALS, SOME WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
EARLIER POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS BEHIND THESE STORMS IS LOOKING LESS
CERTAIN EXCEPT FOR CDS WHERE BRIEF MVFR MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BEFORE DAWN WITH GUSTY NE WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING, BECOMING LIGHTER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...93
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page