772
FXUS64 KLUB 041115
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- MUCH COOLER AND BREEZIER TODAY.
- COOL WEATHER LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SENDING THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION EARLY AS AN ACTIVE NIGHT IS
BEGINNING TO GET UNDERWAY ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH STORMS
ACCELERATING SOUTH FROM OUR PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THROUGH 11 PM,
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD ALONG THE LENGTH
OF THE FRONT AND ONTO THE CAPROCK WITH SOME SEVERE MODES AT TIMES
GIVEN A BROAD FIELD OF MUCAPES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.
GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FRONT AND NEARLY PARALLEL
BOUNDARY-RELATIVE STORM MOTIONS, INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE UNLIKELY
TO BE SUSTAINED FOR VERY LONG AS THEY QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT, SO
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE TOO COMMON. VERY RICH MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-TO- MID 60S AND PWATS OF ALMOST 1.5 INCHES
OFF THE CAPROCK WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AND SOME MINOR
FLOODING, YET WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING (UNLIKE EARLIER IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA) THE WINDOW FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE SMALL.
STORMS WILL WANE FROM N-S THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MUCH COOLER NORTHEASTERLIES DEEPEN AHEAD OF CLEARING SKIES FOR
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW REMAINS BREEZY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BEFORE SLOWLY RELAXING IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN
WITH FULL SUN, HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED A BIT BELOW THE NBM TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH THE COOLER RANGE FROM MOS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FEW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE ENTER
A MORE AMPLIFIED AND UNSETTLED PATTERN BY LATE WEEK. SUNDAY MORNING
BEGINS WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING PEELING EAST OF THE REGION
ALLOWING NORTHEAST WINDS TO VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANEMIC NORTHWEST
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING FROM THE COLORADO PLATEAU TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WON'T ALLOW FOR MUCH OF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY, BUT
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE LIES A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH RESPECTABLE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. MODELS ARE STILL KEEN ON KEEPING THIS WAVE AND
ANY PRECIP IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ARRIVES EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR
LOW POPS ON THE CAPROCK WITH SOME ASSISTANCE VIA MOISTENING SE
UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MOISTENING PLAYS INTO MUCH BETTER POPS BY LATE
WEEK AS ENSEMBLES AGREE NICELY IN AN ACTIVE DRYLINE SETTING UP
LOCALLY AND REMAINING ON OUR TURF THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND UNDER
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BOOT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30
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