549
FXUS64 KLUB 041727
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SPRAWLING 1030MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO VALUES JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF
THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE BREEZY WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY. A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE SHORT WAVE MAY LOOK WEAK, IT WILL STILL
BRING A SUBTROPICAL JET MAX AROUND 65-75KT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FA. BECAUSE OF THE LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE, MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL PRIMARILY BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH LITTLE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ON TUESDAY BUT
FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BRING
HIGHER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. RETURN
FLOW WILL BE ANEMIC AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, INSTABILITY
WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT GARNERING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TAKING SHAPE. A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS USUAL AT THIS TIME FRAME, DETAILS ARE LACKING BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THE
MOMENT, ANALOG GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING THURSDAY AND BEYOND WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH DUSK AND DIMINISH
THEREAFTER, WITH WINDS VEERING EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR OTHERWISE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
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