817
FXUS64 KLUB 051710
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE TUESDAY,
WITH A VERY LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THE CWA REMAINS BENEATH THE EASTERN TRANCHE OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EVIDENT ON WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE BYPRODUCT OF THESE LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES IS A THIN BLANKET OF MID-LEVEL ALTOCU (OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A
MACKEREL SKY), ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL STRATOCU, ADVECTING OVER
THE CAPROCK. THIS CLOUD LAYER IS SHALLOW, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WAS BENIGN, WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IN THE TX BIG
COUNTRY ON RECENT WTM DATA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AREA-WIDE AND BECOMING SLIGHTLY BREEZY BEYOND SOLAR NOON
FOR AREAS NEAR THE NM STATE LINE. THOSE LOCALES HAVE MISSED OUT ON
THE RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, AND WITH RH REDUCTIONS FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE TEENS THIS AMIDST CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AS TEMPERATURES
RISE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, RFTIS ARE CAPPED AT 1. THEREFORE, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON AND
LAST THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM CDT FOR THOSE
LOCALES. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN LIGHT,
WITH MORNING LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THIS PAST MORNING AS CLOUDS
CLEAR. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING HAS BEEN APPLIED FOR MONDAY, WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY AREA-WIDE IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK, LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 70S AREA-WIDE MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SLATED TO RETURN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
OVERCAST WILL ADVECT OVER THE CWA MONDAY EVENING, AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER
THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL INITIALLY BE CONFINED WITHIN THE MID/HIGH-LEVEL THETA SURFACES,
WITH GRADUAL WET-BULBING OF THE COLUMNS FORECAST TO OCCUR HEADING
INTO TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED
WITH THE BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 600 MB WILL ADVECT AN ANEMIC
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER THE CWA, WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
BENEATH MOIST ADIABATIC PARCEL TRAJECTORIES ALOFT. UPDRAFTS MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHTNING, BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITHIN THE
BROADER AREA OF HIGHER POPS (WHICH HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 30 PERCENT),
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE <=200
J/KG (WHICH IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING). THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL
OTHERWISE BE DRY, ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE, WITH INVERTED-V
PROFILES BENEATH CLOUD BASE. HOWEVER, THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ABOVE THE LCL WILL PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
GUSTS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF QPF FOR THE CWA. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD DUE
TO THE BREEZY RETURN FLOW; AND WINDS WERE RAISED A TAD TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE UPTICK IN LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SEMI-PROGRESSIVE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A HIGH-FREQUENCY WAVE SERIES
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE
ARRIVAL OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S., WITH THE
TROUGH FORECAST TO BE CLOSED. BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
SERIES OF SHORTER-WAVE PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO EJECT OVER THE CWA
AS THE JET STREAK(S) ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOSE TOWARDS
THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY, WITH PROSPECTS IMPROVING EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY
COVERAGE-WISE AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING MAGNITUDE OF
THE KINEMATIC FIELDS AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD, WITH EARLY
INDICATIONS OF PWATS CLIMBING 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS DUE TO A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO W TX. CIPS ANALOGS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WITH
GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE ALSO CONSISTENTLY INDICATING BOUNDARY-PARALLEL
SHEAR VECTORS, WHICH SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FLASH
FLOODING CAN OCCUR DESPITE THE DROUGHT THAT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
CWA. DETAILS WILL BECOME BETTER RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE-CALIBER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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